World Of Wallstreet

Year-Over-Year Unadjusted: Monthly Department Of Labor Non-Farms Payroll Report

Here's my take on the Labor Department's monthly unemployment report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here and here and here.
• Key Numbers: Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Depart Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 236,998,000 vs 234,913,000 year ago. Not Seasonally Adjusted Employed: 137,203,000 vs 140,105,000. Seasonally Adjusted Private Hours Worked Per Week: 33.1 vs 33.2.   
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100305yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This data series that things are still worse than a year ago, but are bottoming. The spread between the light green and dark green bars and the light blue and dark blue bars in the graph below is narrowing.

 Let me know where I've got it wrong.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -27%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims drop after rising for 2 weeks... New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 471,720 in the week ending Feb. 27, an increase of 17,128 from the previous week. There were 645,827 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Quite a nice data point which puts us back on track for a bottoming of unemployment in June 2010. The bright green line looks a lot better than it has for weeks. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 





 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims drop after rising for 2 weeks... New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 471,720 in the week ending Feb. 27, an increase of 17,128 from the previous week. There were 645,827 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Quite a nice data point which puts us back on track for a bottoming of unemployment in June 2010. The bright green line looks a lot better than it has for weeks. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 





 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -23%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs... The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,468 in the week ending Feb. 20, a decrease of 25,767 from the previous week. There were 605,668 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which which continues to look ugly. I'm thinking the dark red line characterizes the trend and that we won't see a peak in unemployment until late 2010 if the trend continues. We are looking at an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 




 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs... The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,468 in the week ending Feb. 20, a decrease of 25,767 from the previous week. There were 605,668 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which which continues to look ugly. I'm thinking the dark red line characterizes the trend and that we won't see a peak in unemployment until late 2010 if the trend continues. We are looking at an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 




 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department Building Permits Down 8.5% And Housing Starts Up 18.5%

Here's the summary for the yesterday's Commerce Department's New Residential Construction release:

• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places Not Seasonally Adjusted, This Month=39,400, Year Ago=36,300. New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started Not Seasonally Adjusted: This Month=37,800, Year Ago=31,900.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation: There has been a recent recovery in housing (after some really dismal lows in Spring 2009). 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places Not Seasonally Adjusted, This Month=39,400, Year Ago=36,300. New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started Not Seasonally Adjusted: This Month=37,800, Year Ago=31,900.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation: There has been a recent recovery in housing (after some really dismal lows in Spring 2009). 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: USA Retail Sales Up 3.2%

I'm catching up on my economics data. This is from 2/12/2010. Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $323,688,000,000 vs 2008: $313,593,000,000.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A disappointing month pointing to a slowing recovery (see graph below).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $323,688,000,000 vs 2008: $313,593,000,000.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A disappointing month pointing to a slowing recovery (see graph below).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $323,688,000,000 vs 2008: $313,593,000,000.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A disappointing month pointing to a slowing recovery (see graph below).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -23%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise unexpectedly... The number of newly laid-off workers filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly surged last week after having fallen sharply in the previous week. The gain dampened hopes about how quickly the labor market may improve this year."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 476,730 in the week ending Feb. 13, a decrease of 30,850 from the previous week. There were 619,951 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which is getting uglier. Which of the three lines looks like it best tracks the data? For me it used to be the green line where claims would match the previous recession around June (when unemployment bottomed for the Internet Bubble recession peaked). The dark red line looks like a better fit now and the bright red line looks like a contender. Both red lines indicate an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 



 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -29%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims fall more than expected... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week to the lowest total in a month, a hopeful sign the job market may be improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 504,661 in the week ending Feb. 6, a decrease of 28,640 from the previous week. There were 710,152 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100211yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 


 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims fall more than expected... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week to the lowest total in a month, a hopeful sign the job market may be improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 504,661 in the week ending Feb. 6, a decrease of 28,640 from the previous week. There were 710,152 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100211yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 


 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year Unadjusted: Monthly Department Of Non-Farms Payroll Report

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's monthly unemployment report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "January unemployment rate drops to 9.7 percent... The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 9.7 percent from 10 percent while employers shed 20,000 jobs."
• Labor Department News Release: click here and here and here.
• Key Numbers: Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Depart Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 236,832,000 vs 234,739,000 year ago. Not Seasonally Adjusted Employed: 136,809,000 vs 140,436,000. Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Hours Worked Per Week: 33.1 vs 33.2.   
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100205yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This data series shows an uneven change in the genuine employment condition. The employment population ratio continues to fall (the percent of non-institutionalized adjusts employed) and has hit a new low. The hours worked per employed person bumped up some so that the Full Time Employment Population Ratio which assumes that in an ideal world every employed person would get 40 hours of work popped up a bit but is bouncing along at a low level. I calculate the Full Time Employment Population Ratio = (Num Employed / Non-Institutional Adult Population) * (Avg Private Hours Worked Per Week / 40).

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -22.25%, BUT... Potential Trend Change

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims rise unexpectedly... New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 480,000 as layoffs continue, jobs remain scarce... The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 530,405 in the week ending Jan. 30, an increase of 28,234 from the previous week. There were 682,176 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100204yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 

 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., I've been concentrating on my day-job lately. I have a chance to make a real contribution that could pull a 300 person division out of the fire. I do see that its affecting my posting and even my investing edge.

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 3%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $181,082,000,000, Year Ago: $1186,798,000,000, -3.06%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $183,638,000,000, Year Ago: $189,369,000,000, -3.03%, Orders Net Shipments To Shipment Ratio: -1.39%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100128yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Looks like we might see actual year over year growth soon.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department New Home Sales Down 11.5%, Median Price Down 3.6%

Here's my quick look at today's Commerce Department New Home Sales:

• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Houses Sold Unadjusted: 23,000, Year Ago: 26,000, Year Over Year %: -11.54 Median Price Unadjusted: $221,300, Year Ago: $229,600, Year Over Year %: -3.61.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - Still no recovery in housing construction. One oddball thing that appeared in the numbers (that I don't usually report) is that the average house price actually rose year over year (from $263,100 to $290,600) Don't know what to make of that.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.8%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims drop less than expected... New jobless claims, factory order reports disappoint in fresh evidence of an uneven recovery... A drop in new jobless claims came in short of expectations and factory orders rose only slightly, fresh evidence the economy is recovering at a slow, uneven pace."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 500,392 in the week ending Jan. 23, a decrease of 145,417 from the previous week. There were 620,143 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100128yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Consumer Price Index Down +2.72%

Today we cover the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index release from a year-over-year perspective:

• Labor Department News Release: click here and here.
• Key Numbers: The unadjusted index is at 215.949. Same month 2008's press release held 210.228.
• Last Month: -1.4%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091217yoy)

My uneducated interpretation: Consumer price inflation is back as expected.

Unadjusted Year Over Year: USA Retail Sales Up 5.48%

Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $409,230,000,000 vs 2008: $387,964,000,000. Last month unadjusted year over year was down 5.85%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Up nicely year over year. This data series indicates a recovery. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $409,230,000,000 vs 2008: $387,964,000,000. Last month unadjusted year over year was down 5.85%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Up nicely year over year. This data series indicates a recovery. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year Unadjusted: Monthly Department Of Labor Unemployment

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's monthly unemployment report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Employers unexpectedly cut jobs in December... U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December, government data showed on Friday, cooling optimism on the labor market's recovery and keeping pressure on President Barack Obama."
• Labor Department News Release: click here and here.
• Key Numbers: Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Depart Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 236,924,000 vs 235,035,000 year ago. Not Seasonally Adjusted Employed: 137,953,000 vs 143,350,000. Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Hours Worked Per Week: 33.1 vs 33.2.   
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100108yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This data series shows the genuine employment condition continuing to degrade. From two months ago, the Full Time Employment Population Ratio = (Num Employed / Non-Institutional Adult Population) * (Avg Private Hours Worked Per Week / 40) has fallen from half a percent (see below). Compared to a year ago it has fallen 2.4%.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.8%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Unemployment-claims data signal job gains are near... A government report Thursday on claims for unemployment aid signaled that layoffs are easing and that the economy could be on the verge of posting the first monthly gain in jobs in two years."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 645,571 in the week ending Jan. 2, an increase of 88,000 from the previous week. There were 731,958 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100107yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Big change from last week in the Recession Over Recession graph as there was a major jump up in initial claims in January 2003 (long after the recession was officially over). Guess I'll have to wait thru the end of January to see if this turns around, but the top in unemployment for this downturn may be sooner than my forecast June 2010 assuming the jobless claims remain substantially better in 2010 than they were in 2003. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 22.3%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims fall unexpectedly as layoffs ease... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, a sign the job market is healing as the economy slowly recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 557,155 in the week ending Dec. 26, a decrease of 8,088 from the previous week. There were 717,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091231yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010. From this one data series, it appears that the economy is recovering.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 6%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims, goods orders signal modest rebound... A fitful economic recovery is drawing strength from a stabilizing job market and signs that manufacturing will contribute to the rebound."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $158,670,000,000, Year Ago: $168,735,000, -5.96%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $170,632,000,000, Year Ago: $181,533,000,000, -6%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091224yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Less bad, but still bad with the orders lower than shipment with no improvement. This is bearish report for the economy, although durable goods are a lagging indicator.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 21.9%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims, goods orders signal modest rebound... A fitful economic recovery is drawing strength from a stabilizing job market and signs that manufacturing will contribute to the rebound."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 561,902 in the week ending Dec. 19, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week. There were 719,615 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091224yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-over-year, unadjusted initial jobless claims had a great week (-21.9%), but one that does not change my forecast for unemployment peaking. Based on the recession over recession graph (below) and the previous recession's unemployment graphs (see further below) I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010. From this one data series, it appears that the economy is recovering.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.83%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless-aid claims rise, but 4-week average falls... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week as the recovery of the nation's battered labor market proceeds in fits and starts."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,344 in the week ending Dec. 12, a decrease of 107,393 from the previous week. There were 629,867 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091217yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Initial jobless claims have been better, year-over-year, for 6 consecutive weeks. No real change from the last couple of weeks. Based on the recession over recession graph (below) and the previous recession's unemployment graphs (see further below) I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 14%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims fall unexpectedly to 457K... The tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly for the fifth straight week, a hopeful sign that the job market is slowly improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,989 in the week ending Nov. 28, a decrease of 78,263 from the previous week. There were 535,730 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091203yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No real change from last week. The recession over recession graph (below) is trending downward, but we are still 75,000 initial jobless claims a week higher in 2009 than we were in 2002 (see graph below). At the current trend 2010 jobless claims should match 2003 jobless claims around the beginning June of 2010. Unemployment for the Internet Bubble recession peaked in Q2 2003. So, I'm forecasting (along with the herd) a peak in unemployment around June 2010. By the way, looking at 2003 below, I see that employment only went up by 1/2 a percent from the end of 2002 to the peak, so I'm forecasting unemployment staying in the 10s for 2010.

 

The unemployment rate peaked in the previous recession in June of 2003 (at a measly 6.3%) (see Bureau Of Labor Statistics graph below). 

This is pretty crude, but at least it has a couple of graphs to back it up. I'd really like to be bearish, but the initial jobless claims data doesn't support it.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 10.7%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims dip, spending up in sign of rebound... In a hopeful sign for the economy, the number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell below 500,000 last week for the first time since January."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21, an increase of 68,080 from the previous week. There were 609,138 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091119yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-Over-Year initial jobless claims were significantly lower than last year. This means that fewer people are losing their jobs now than a year ago. This week, being around Thanksgiving, appears in the historical data to have quite a bit of volatility. Here's a way of looking at when unemployment might peak.

We are still 100,000 initial jobless claims a week higher in 2009 than we were in 2002 (see graph below), but are trending downward. At the current trend 2010 jobless claims should match 2003 jobless claims around the beginning June of 2010. 

The unemployment rate peaked in the previous recession in June of 2003 (at a measly 6.3%) (see Bureau Of Labor Statistics graph below). 

So, extrapolating from the current initial jobless claims relative to the 2001/2002 recession and the unemployment peak from the 2001/2002 recession, gives us an estimated unemployment peak for the current downturn of June 2010.

This is pretty crude, but at least it has a couple of graphs to back it up.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., As much as I admire Karl Deninger's work, I find today's post where he questions the seasonal adjustment to be hysterical (without looking into earlier years to see where the seasonal adjustments came from) and to be a case where he is forcing his viewpoint on the data rather than letting the data speak to him.

Year Over Year: China Electricity Consumption Grows 16%

If this data is reliable, it indicates that the Chinese economy is growing robustly.This data is kind of hard to find. The latest data point was, apparently, released in China (click here) on Nov 13, 2009 but came out in an English news story only today.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 6.57%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless benefit claims unchanged at 505K... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance was unchanged last week, remaining above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 479,295 in the week ending Nov. 14, a decrease of 53,132 from the previous week. There were 513,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091119yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-Over-Year initial jobless claims were lower than last year significantly. This means that fewer people are losing their jobs now than a year ago. However, looking at the absolute numbers leads me to the conclusion that things are still getting worse, but not as quickly as last year. As you can see below, we are still:

• 200K lost jobs per week higher than "the good times" and
• 100K lost jobs per week higher than 2001 to 2003 Internet Bubble recression and
• It took at least a year (Q1 2003 to Q1 2004) at the end of the last recession to have initial jobless claims drop 100K. To me it looks like we are still at least a year away from having unemployment peak!.

However, here's what the AP says about how this number must change to get to the point where the economy is adding jobs: "While the steady decline in claims is evidence that firings are decreasing, most economists say weekly claims would have to fall to about 425,000 for several weeks to signal that the economy is actually adding jobs. Some economists put the number higher, around 475,000." The AP doesn't mention that we need to get to the point where the economy is adding at least 100K jobs/month to get the unemployment number to stop rising. So, this basically confirms my outlook that things are still getting worse as far as employment goes. 

P.S., I'm still monitoring various other economic numbers but am only posting entries when convenient as I haven't gotten any reader complaints about missing the industrial production, housing permits/starts and other posts.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Down 2%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims fall more than expected to 502K... New claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected last week, evidence the job market is slowly healing as the economy recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 529,446 in the week ending Nov. 7, an increase of 46,904 from the previous week. There were 539,787 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091112yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-Over-Year initial jobless claims fell for the first time since the start of the downturn. This means that fewer people are losing their jobs now than a year. However, looking at the absolute numbers leads me to the conclusion that things are still getting worse, but not as quickly as last year. As you can see below, we are still:

• 200K lost jobs per week higher than "the good times" and
• 100K lost jobs per week higher than 2001 to 2003 Internet Bubble recression and
• It took at least a year (Q1 2003 to Q1 2004) at the end of the last recession to have initial jobless claims drop 100K. To me it looks like we are still at least a year away from having unemployment peak!.

 


MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 3%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims drop to 512K, lowest since Jan.... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to the lowest level in 10 months, evidence that job cuts are easing as the economy slowly heals."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 480,178 in the week ending Oct. 31, a decrease of 14,216 from the previous week. There were 466,341 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091015yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A better than usual data point. Someday soon I expect we'll have a positive year-over-year number. But it still seems to me that initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising and will continue to rise for some time.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., its not worth mentioning because it happens every week, but even though things are getting worse (initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising), AP insists on assuming that things are getting better.

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 9.6%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims drop less than expected... The number of people claiming jobless benefits for the first time dropped less than expected last week, evidence that the labor market remains weak even as the economy is recovering."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 492,456 in the week ending Oct. 24, an increase of 32,026 from the previous week. There were 449,389 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091015yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No news here. Initial jobless claims were bad again this week and still 100K over the same point in time for 2002. Mid-october 2002 was the Internet Bubble crash's stock-market low and unemployment didn't start falling until Q2 2003 (see graph below). Seems to me that initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising and will continue to rise for some time. Based on the economy, the stock market is due for a correction, but I'm expecting it to rise on sentiment/psychological factors thru the end of the year. 

 
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department New Home Sales Down 11.4%, Median Price Down 9%

Here's my quick look at today's Commerce Department New Home Sales:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New home sales fall 3.6 percent... Sales of new U.S. homes dropped unexpectedly last month as the effects of a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time owners started to wane." 
• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Houses Sold Unadjusted: 31,000, Year Ago: 35,000, Year Over Year %: 11.43. Median Price Unadjusted: $204,800, Year Ago: $225,200, Year Over Year %: -9.06.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - A bad set of numbers which indicate that perhaps the so-called housing "recovery" is over. I think the housing market is a big illiquid market that trends heavily, so I'll stick with year-over-year numbers for now. I think next month's numbers will be especially telling.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 19%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Durable goods orders rise 1 percent in September... Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in September as the biggest jump in demand for machinery in 18 months offset weakness in commercial aircraft and autos."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $176,505,000,000, Year Ago: $213,675,000,000, -17.40%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $185,889,000,000, Year Ago: $219,940,000,000, -15.48%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091028yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Unadjusted shipments and orders remain down hard year-over-year, but are getting better year over year slowly. The orders to shipment ratio remains under 100% meaning orders are not coming in fast enough to allow shipments to grow. This is bearish report for the economy, although durable goods are a lagging indicator.

Looking at the graph below, you see that the shipments (year over year) and orders (year over year) are still down hard but improving and are better than the net shipments ratio. I expect that this "improvement" will continue for sometime converging on the net shipments ratio. This will indicate a steady contraction of the economy until they all close in on zero. Based on the current rate of change that will about about January 2011.

AP Spin - no matter how bad the numbers are, AP persists in their spin that some kind of recovery is underway. They refuse to admit the possibility that the economy is still (and could for some time) continue to contract.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 10.7%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, as employers remain reluctant to hire even with the economy showing signs of recovery."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,449 in the week ending Oct. 17, a decrease of 49,113 from the previous week. There were 416,111 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091015yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Initial jobless claims were bad again this week and still 100K over the same point in time for 2002. Mid-october 2002 was the Internet Bubble crash's low for the stock market and unemployment didn't start falling until Q2 2003 (see graph below). Seems to me that initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising and that the stock market is due for a correction.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department Building Permits Down 28% And Housing Starts Down 29%

Here's the summary for the Commerce Department's New Residential Construction release:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Housing starts rise in Sept.; wholesale prices dip... Construction of new homes edged up slightly in September, helped by a rebound in single-family construction." 
• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places Not Seasonally Adjusted, Aug 2009=51,100, Aug 2008=70,900. New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started Not Seasonally Adjusted: Aug 2009=52,700, Aug 2008=73,900.
• Last Month's Unadjusted Year-Over-Year Numbers: Permits Down 31% And Housing Starts Down 28%

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation: House construction is still falling good and hard year-over-year.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Producer Price Index Down 4.8%

Here's the summary for today's Labor Department's producer price report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Wholesale inflation dips unexpectedly in September... Wholesale prices dropped unexpectedly in September due to lower energy costs, as inflation remains in check amid signs of a broad economic recovery." 
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Monthly Change In Finished Good From 12 Months Ago (unadj.) = -4.8%, Unadjusted Index = 173.4.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091019yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still down hard year over year. Score one for the deflationistas.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year: China Electricity Consumption Up 10%

"China's power usage in September rose 10.24 percent from a year

http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINPEK7855420091015

 

BEIJING, Oct 15 (Reuters) - China's power usage in September rose 10.24 percent from a year earlier to 322.41 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), the China Electricity Council said on Thursday, confirming an earlier Reuters report on power generation."

 

A sign that China is doing ok. Very important for anyone doing resource investing. FWIW, I'm considering starting up a round of fundamental analysis of the Zinc market (which before the crash was supposed be in a deficit in 2011) and zinc miners.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's my graph of China electricity consumption since I started keeping records:

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 10.8%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "514K new jobless claims; inflation remains muted... The number of newly laid-off U.S. workers filing claims for unemployment insurance has fallen to the lowest level since early January, a sign the labor market is slowly improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 503,973 in the week ending Oct. 10, an increase of 51,919 from the previous week. There were 454,065 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091015yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Big pop in unadjusted year-over-year initial jobless and the year-over-year jumped to +10.8%. This was a bad week for the economy and for unemployment in particular. The economy is still in a state of contraction as I see it from these numbers. Initial jobless claims are still roughly 200K per week higher than the "good times" (say 2005, 2006) and are still about 100K higher than most of the previous "bad times" (2001 and 2002).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Consumer Price Index Down -1.3%

Today we cover the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index release from a year-over-year perspective:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "US inflation up modestly in September... U.S. inflation pressures remained modest in September even though gasoline prices edged higher." 
• Labor Department News Release: click here and here.
• Key Numbers: The unadjusted index is at 215.97. Same month 2008's press release held 218.783.
• Last Month: -1.4%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091217yoy)

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - We are now getting to the interesting point where we see whether the deflationists or inflationists are right. As you can see below, crude oil is now higher (by 4.81%) than it was a year ago. At this point I expect crude to stay relatively strong and for consumer price inflation to start picking up.  

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: USA Retail Sales Down 5.44%

Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Associated Press Spin: "US retail sales down after auto program ends... U.S. retail sales declined in September by the largest amount this year as car sales plummeted following the end of the government's popular Cash for Clunkers incentives program. But outside of autos, sales were better than expected." 
• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted August 2009: $333,360,000,000 vs July 2008: $352,554,000,000. Last month unadjusted year over year was down 5.85%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091014yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still down hard year-over-year in the 5% range. The monthly low (adjusted) was Dec 08 at $336,438,000,000, so if the recovery is real we should see a positive year-over-year value in the next 3 months. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 5.3%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims fall to 521K, lowest since Jan... The number of newly laid-off Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to the lowest level since early January, as layoffs eased a bit amid a fledgling economic recovery."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 449,375 in the week ending Oct. 3, an increase of 3,757 from the previous week. There were 426,789 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091008yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Unadjusted year-over-year initial jobless claims resumed their downward march this week because of an increase in last year's jobless claims. The economic contraction is no longer accelerating, but is still in a state of contraction as I see it from these numbers. Initial jobless claims are still roughly 200K per week higher than the "good times" (say 2005, 2006) and are still about 100K higher than most of the previous "bad times" (2001 and 2002). 

The AP spin continues as it emphasizes how things are getting worse more slowly than earlier when the the real story is that nearly 2 years into this downturn things are still getting worse more rapidly than they were throughout the entire dot-com crash downturn.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 13%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New US jobless claims rise more than expected... First-time claims for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week in the U.S., a sign employers are reluctant to hire and the job market remains weak."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 443,694 in the week ending Sept. 26, an increase of 5,878 from the previous week. There were 392,515 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091001yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No real change this week. The year-over-year initial jobless claims are definitely less bad than the Q1/Q2 economic collapse, but are still really bad in absolute terms. But... they are still roughly 200K per week higher than the "good times" (say 2005, 2006) and are still 100K higher than most of the previous "bad times" (2001 and 2002). I think, despite the fact that the USA economy is about to print a single quarter of positive GDP, that the USA economy is still contracting.

This leaves me bearish about stocks relative to the price of gold. As I see it, the most likely way for the USA stock market to stay high (or go higher) is if the FED prints a bunch of money which inflates another stock market bubble. The fundamentals apart from inflation (real earnings or better yet dividends or stock buybacks) do not support current market valuation in my opinion.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 19%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Orders for durable goods drop unexpectedly in Aug... Orders for goods expected to last at least three years fell unexpectedly in August due mainly to a drop in demand for commercial aircraft. The worst reading since January for durable goods is evidence that any recovery in manufacturing will be slow and gradual."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $165,888,000,000 Year Ago: $204,937,000,000, Year Over Year -19.05%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $175,081,000,000, Year Ago: $210,847,000,000, Year Over Year -16.96%.
• Last Months Numbers: Orders=-24.97%, Shipments=-19.76%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090925yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Unadjusted shipments and orders remain down hard year-over-year. The orders to shipment ratio remains under 100% meaning orders are not coming in fast enough to allow shipments to grow. This is bearish report for the economy, although durable goods are a lagging indicator.

Looking at the graph below, you see that the shipments (year over year) and orders (year over year) are still down hard but improving and are better than the net shipments ratio. I expect that this "improvement" will continue for sometime converging on the net shipments ratio. This will indicate a steady contraction of the economy.

AP Spin - no matter how bad the numbers are, AP persists in their spin that some kind of recovery is underway. They refuse to admit the possibility that the economy is still (and could for some time) continue to contract.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 6.7%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims drop unexpectedly to 530K... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell for the third straight week, evidence that layoffs are continuing to ease in the earliest stages of an economic recovery."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 434,358 in the week ending Sept. 19, an increase of 21,966 from the previous week. There were 398,070 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090917yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - The year-over-year initial jobless claims are definitely becoming less bad, but are still really bad in absolute terms. They are actually becoming less bad pretty quickly. But... they are still roughly 200K per week higher than the "good times" (say 2005, 2006) and are still 100K higher than most of the previous "bad times" (2001 and 2002). I think we are good for one or two quarters of positive GDP with unemployment increasing the whole time, but after that I don't know. Given that the stock market looks about 6 months ahead there is no clear read on where the stock market is going from this data, either.

This leaves me currently in Jim Dines' "High State Of Confusion".

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Caveat

Yesteday I reported that year-over-year initial jobless claims were much better than the previous week (click here).

I now see that this is a one-time statistical fluke. Here's why:

• This year, this week included Labor. You can't file for unemployment on Labor day. The loss of labor day is 20% of the week.
• Last year's comparable week did not include labor day.
• Either by switching to last year's labor day week (subtracting 50K from the last year comparable) or adding 20% (adding 80K to the this year number) more to this week to accommodate labor day you see the data line up with earlier weeks.

So, I expect that next week initial jobless claims will go back to looking quite dismal with something like a 30% year-over-year increase.

I apologize for not catching this yesterday,

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year: 3 Of 4 Ports Container Activity Down Hard Year-Over-Year

 

Here it is, verbatim from www.urbansurvival.com:

 

"The latest batch of TEU data from the Port of Long Beach just out shows their container traffic is down a whopping 21.7% from last year.  What's worse?  While imports are down 21.9%, the outbound loaded figure is down a full 26% which means the balance of trade picture is suffering continued asymmetry.

 

True, the Port of Seattle August container traffic showed a rise of 5.4%  in August this year,  but the odds of Seattle hitting its all time high of 14-million + metric tons of cargo (set in 2005) this year are somewhere between slim and none. 

 

Nor is Seattle's blip  a coast-wide phenomena:  The Port of Portland's container volume was down 14.5% from 2008 (the previous month it was down 18.5%) but compared with 2007, Portland is down almost 22%.

 

The Port of Los Angeles showed a 19.32% drop in loaded inbound, while loaded outbound was down only 14.22%.   But just so you don't get the wrong idea for your balance of trade musings, keep in mind that even with the lesser decline in exports, Los Angeles still runs only 31.7% export trade; the rest is inbound."

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department Building Permits Down 31% And Housing Starts Down 28%

Here's the summary for the Commerce Department's New Residential Construction release:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "US home construction falls 1 percent, misses views... Construction of new U.S. homes dipped slightly last month, missing expectations, in a sign that the building industry's recovery from the housing bust is likely to be bumpy and gradual." 
• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places Not Seasonally Adjusted, Aug 2009=52,300, Aug 2008=76,300. New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started Not Seasonally Adjusted: Aug 2009=55,100, Aug 2008=76,400.
• Last Month's Unadjusted Year-Over-Year Numbers: Permits Down 37% And Housing Starts Down 36%

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation: House construction is still falling hard year-over-year, but the trend is towards less bad (year-over-year) each month.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 6.7%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims drop unexpectedly to 545K... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since early July, evidence that job cuts are slowing."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,869 in the week ending Sept. 12, a decrease of 58,429 from the previous week. There were 382,249 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090917yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - The year-over-year initial jobless claims made a really big shift this week (for the better), at least twice as big as any prior shift I've witnessed since following this closely. We'll have to see if this sticks. In the previous recession, unadjusted year over year initial jobless claims first went negative in January of 2002 while the market bottom was nine months later in September 2002. At +6%, this economy does not have that far to go before year-over-year goes negative. I'm changing my position and I expect that with the recent other bullish news (industrial production, retail sales) that Q3 GDP will print a positive number when it comes out about a month from now. I don't know how long positive GDP can be sustained and I don't know when unemployment will top, but for now positive GDP of some sort seems to be in place.

The chart show just how big a shift this week's number was. As you can see, the year-over-year shift was based both on a big increase week-over-week a year ago and on a big reduction week-over-week this year. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: US Industrial Production Down 10.4%

Here's the summary of today's Federal Reserve's US Industrial Production release:

• Last Month's YOY Number: Down 13.2%
• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Industrial production better than expected in Aug.... Industrial companies boosted production more than expected in August, making more cars, clothing and other goods in the early stages of a broad economic recovery." 
• Federal Reserve News Release: click here. Un-seasonally adjusted numbers found in supplemental, both this year and previous year release supplemental data must be consulted.
• Key Numbers: This month 2009 99.6, same month 2008 111.2 from a baseline for 2002 of 100.
• My Spreadsheet (click hereDownload 20090916yoy)

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - Still down hard year-over-year, but definitely better than the last few months. Will it be sustained? We'll see.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Consumer Price Index Down -1.5%

Today we cover the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index release from a year-over-year perspective:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "US consumer prices rise on higher gas prices... U.S. consumer prices rose slightly in August due to higher gas prices, another sign the weak economy is keeping inflation in check." 
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: The unadjusted index is at 215.834. Same month 2008 was 219.086 from its initial news release.
• Last Month: -1.4%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090916yoy)

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - there is still price deflation happening, but crude oil is still down 31% year-over-year. We are getting close to the interesting point which happens in Q4 09 when the year over year commodity prices stop falling (assuming no fall crash)? 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Producer Price Index Down 4.3%

Here's the summary for the Labor Department's producer price report for July 2009:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "US wholesale prices soar 1.7 percent in August... U.S. inflation at the wholesale level shot up at double the expected rate in August as gasoline prices soared by the largest amount in a decade." 
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Monthly Change In Finished Good From 12 Months Ago (unadj.) = -4.3%, Unadjusted Index = 174.3.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090915yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still down hard year over year, but is that a whiff of inflation returning?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: USA Retail Sales Down 7.9%

Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Associated Press Spin: "Retail sales rise more than expected in August... Retail sales jumped in August by the largest amount in more than three years, spurred by widespread gains beyond the expected increases of auto sales from the government's Cash for Clunkers program." 
• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted August 2009: $362,278,000,000 vs July 2008: $384,798,000,000. Last month unadjusted year over year was down 7.95%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090915yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still down hard year-over-year but definitely decelerating. Is the economy bottoming or is consumer inflation (not adjusted for) starting to kick back in? I don't know.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 37%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims fall more than expected to 550K... First-time claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, evidence that companies are laying off fewer workers as the economy improves."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,516 in the week ending Sept. 5, an increase of 3,834 from the previous week. There were 336,733 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090910yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Initial jobless claims got worse this week (despite the headline) both unadjusted week over week and especially year over year. In the previous recession, unadjusted year over year initial jobless claims first went negative in January of 2002 while the market bottom was nine months later in September 2002. At +37%, this economy has a long way to go before year-over-year goes negative. Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and I think it indicates continued economic contraction. 

Of course, the AP does whatever it can to put a positive spin on this sensitive statistic and leads with a conclusion that is the exact opposite of mine.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 26%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims dip less than expected to 570K... New jobless claims fell slightly last week while the number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose, a sign the job market's recovery will be long and bumpy."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,271 in the week ending Aug. 29, a decrease of 5,002 from the previous week. There were 358,730 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20090903yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Things remain bad with initial jobless claims still way over the roughly 330K value which historically has represented a bottoming of the economy and stock market. Year-over-year percentages are falling as the economy was hard in recession this time last year.

I think the long-term chart clearly shows how high initial jobless claims are compared to the good times. Infact, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims are still above the peak of the dot-com recession. This data indicates that the economy is still contracting.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us