World Of Wallstreet

Year-Over-Year: Initial Jobless Claims -15%, But No Longer Improving Relative To 2009

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 405,639 in the week ending Oct. 23, an increase of 11,678 from the previous week. There were 494,476 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009." and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000".
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20101028yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A good data point, but not good enough to change anything. As you can see, the initial jobless claims situation is no longer improving over last year. Yuck. This looks like continued high unemployment to me.

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year: Initial Jobless Claims -15%, But No Longer Improving Relative To 2009

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 371,004 in the week ending Oct. 2, a decrease of 1,532 from the previous week. There were 451,860 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.", but if you look up last year's press release you'll see a higher initial jobless claims number of 460,449 (making this number look better) and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 452,000".
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20101021yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm now mainly looking at the chart below. As you can see, the initial jobless claims situation is no longer improving over last year. Yuck. This looks like continued high unemployment to me.

As you can see with this chart, this "recovery" is now clearly worse than the post-Internet bubble "jobless recovery". This suggests to me that the US debt is significantly affecting recession recoveries (as predicted by my reading Rogoff's and Reinhart's recent book). The high price of crude oil may also be a factor.

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year: Initial Jobless Claims -15%, Last Weeks Good Number Was A Fluke

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 370,147 in the week ending Sept. 25, a decrease of 12,176 from the previous week. There were 445,618 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.", but if you look up last year's press release you'll see a lower initial jobless claims number of 434,358 and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 453,000".
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100930yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change since last week. The Global Financial Crisis vs Internet Bubble chart below shows that the job loss situation is trending worse than the Internet Bubble's Jobless Recovery of 2003.

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year: Initial Jobless Claims -12.7%, Last Weeks Good Number Was A Fluke

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 379,369 in the week ending Sept. 18, an increase of 37,705 from the previous week. There were 437,543 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009." and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 465,000"
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100923yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Last week's good number was a fluke. The Global Financial Crisis vs Internet Bubble chart below shows that the job loss situation is trending worse than the Internet Bubble's Jobless Recovery of 2003.

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 379,369 in the week ending Sept. 18, an increase of 37,705 from the previous week. There were 437,543 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009." and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 465,000"
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100923yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Last week's good number was a fluke. The Global Financial Crisis vs Internet Bubble chart below shows that the job loss situation is trending worse than the Internet Bubble's Jobless Recovery of 2003.

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year: Initial Jobless Claims: A Good Number, But...

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 339,838 in the week ending Sept. 11, a decrease of 38,145 from the previous week. There were 411,126 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009." and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 450,000"
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100916yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A good number, but still not good enough to prevent increasing unemployment. Let's look at a few graphs. First, how this years jobless claims compare to the jobless claims of 2008 when all hell was breaking loose:

For the first time in a long time jobless claims this year are better than 2008. I expect this is an indication that things are not yet falling in the toilet like they were in 2008.

Here's the year-over-year graph:

The negative readings indicate that things are better than they were a year ago during the "green shoots" recovery, but the trend is towards less and less better.

Now, here's the Global Financial Crisis vs Internet Bubble With Jobless Recovery graph I've been putting up with every report:

This is the most hopeful graph. This week was quite a good data point. Given that unemployment was improving at this point in 2009 if this graph can stay near zero or go negative them perhaps unemployment will start improving.

Lastly, the long term perspective:

The pink dots are still higher than they were throughout almost all of the Internet Bubble (and its jobless recovery). This says that unless initial jobless claims get better that unemployment will continue to increase (at least if you consider unemployment to be the number of people without jobs vs the total number of people of job-seeking age). 

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 339,838 in the week ending Sept. 11, a decrease of 38,145 from the previous week. There were 411,126 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009." and "the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 450,000"
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100916yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A good number, but still not good enough to prevent increasing unemployment. Let's look at a few graphs. First, how this years jobless claims compare to the jobless claims of 2008 when all hell was breaking loose:

For the first time in a long time jobless claims this year are better than 2008. I expect this is an indication that things are not yet falling in the toilet like they were in 2008.

Here's the year-over-year graph:

The negative readings indicate that things are better than they were a year ago during the "green shoots" recovery, but the trend is towards less and less better.

Now, here's the Global Financial Crisis vs Internet Bubble With Jobless Recovery graph I've been putting up with every report:

This is the most hopeful graph. This week was quite a good data point. Given that unemployment was improving at this point in 2009 if this graph can stay near zero or go negative them perhaps unemployment will start improving.

Lastly, the long term perspective:

The pink dots are still higher than they were throughout almost all of the Internet Bubble (and its jobless recovery). This says that unless initial jobless claims get better that unemployment will continue to increase (at least if you consider unemployment to be the number of people without jobs vs the total number of people of job-seeking age). 

Let me know what you think.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -16.1%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 380,935 in the week ending Aug. 21, a decrease of 23,613 from the previous week. There were 457,269 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100826yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number, but not as bad as last week. No change to my outlook from last week: Looks to me like unemployment is going to start turning back up. The "things are getting better" green line in the Global Financial Crisis Vs Internet Bubble graph is clearly history and things are not getting better (see Dark Red Line) and actually seem to be getting worse (see Bright Red Line and, worse still, the Light Blue 4-Week Moving Average).

Once again, while unemployment is a trailing indicator, initially jobless claims is a leading indicator. The initial jobless claims data series is now solidly confirming my expectations of another economic contraction. If you haven't gotten defensive (or set to profit from a downturn) you might want to start thinking hard about it. 

  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 380,935 in the week ending Aug. 21, a decrease of 23,613 from the previous week. There were 457,269 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100826yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number, but not as bad as last week. No change to my outlook from last week: Looks to me like unemployment is going to start turning back up. The "things are getting better" green line in the Global Financial Crisis Vs Internet Bubble graph is clearly history and things are not getting better (see Dark Red Line) and actually seem to be getting worse (see Bright Red Line and, worse still, the Light Blue 4-Week Moving Average).

Once again, while unemployment is a trailing indicator, initially jobless claims is a leading indicator. The initial jobless claims data series is now solidly confirming my expectations of another economic contraction. If you haven't gotten defensive (or set to profit from a downturn) you might want to start thinking hard about it. 

  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -11.5%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 401,856 in the week ending Aug. 14, a decrease of 22,650 from the previous week. There were 457,985 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100819yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number. Looks to me like unemployment is going to start turning back up. The "things are getting better" green line in the Global Financial Crisis Vs Internet Bubble graph is clearly history and things are not getting better (see Dark Red Line) and actually seem to be getting worse (see Bright Red Line and, worse still, the Light Blue 4-Week Moving Average).

Finally, I've added a new graph which compares this year's initial unemployment claims with 2008's. As you know things turned really ugly around this time in 2008 and the initial jobless claims for this year remain worse than 2008. I was surprised to see that this year's jobless claims remain above 2008's (although the gap has been shrinking). This is worth watching. Things will once again turn really ugly if this graph doesn't go negative right away.

Once again, while unemployment is a trailing indicator, initially jobless claims is a leading indicator. The initial jobless claims data series is now solidly confirming my expectations of another economic contraction. If you haven't gotten defensive (or set to profit from a downturn) you might want to start thinking hard about it. 

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 401,856 in the week ending Aug. 14, a decrease of 22,650 from the previous week. There were 457,985 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100819yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number. Looks to me like unemployment is going to start turning back up. The "things are getting better" green line in the Global Financial Crisis Vs Internet Bubble graph is clearly history and things are not getting better (see Dark Red Line) and actually seem to be getting worse (see Bright Red Line and, worse still, the Light Blue 4-Week Moving Average).

Finally, I've added a new graph which compares this year's initial unemployment claims with 2008's. As you know things turned really ugly around this time in 2008 and the initial jobless claims for this year remain worse than 2008. I was surprised to see that this year's jobless claims remain above 2008's (although the gap has been shrinking). This is worth watching. Things will once again turn really ugly if this graph doesn't go negative right away.

Once again, while unemployment is a trailing indicator, initially jobless claims is a leading indicator. The initial jobless claims data series is now solidly confirming my expectations of another economic contraction. If you haven't gotten defensive (or set to profit from a downturn) you might want to start thinking hard about it. 

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -14.4%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 399,570 in the week ending July 31, a decrease of 14,247 from the previous week. There were 466,695 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100805yoy ).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number. Still looks to me like this downturn is going to be worse (in terms of joblessness) than the jobless recovery coming out of the Internet Bubble recession (see Red Line). Also, while unemployment is a trailing indicator, initially jobless claims is a leading indicator. This data series is now confirming my expectations of another economic contraction. 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 399,570 in the week ending July 31, a decrease of 14,247 from the previous week. There were 466,695 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100805yoy ).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number. Still looks to me like this downturn is going to be worse (in terms of joblessness) than the jobless recovery coming out of the Internet Bubble recession (see Red Line). Also, while unemployment is a trailing indicator, initially jobless claims is a leading indicator. This data series is now confirming my expectations of another economic contraction. 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -19.7%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 411,107 in the week ending July 24, a decrease of 91,366 from the previous week. There were 511,628 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100729yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number. Looks to me like this downturn is going to be worse (in terms of joblessness) than the jobless recovery coming out of the Internet Bubble recession (see Red Line).   

  


  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 411,107 in the week ending July 24, a decrease of 91,366 from the previous week. There were 511,628 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100729yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another bad number. Looks to me like this downturn is going to be worse (in terms of joblessness) than the jobless recovery coming out of the Internet Bubble recession (see Red Line).   

  


  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -15%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 498,022 in the week ending July 17, a decrease of 13,113 from the previous week. There were 585,575 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100722yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - That was a really bad number (see first chart below). This number makes the red line (which points to rising unemployment and economic contraction) back in the game (matching my macro outlook which, as of last week, was unsupported by this data series).  

 

  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 498,022 in the week ending July 17, a decrease of 13,113 from the previous week. There were 585,575 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100722yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - That was a really bad number (see first chart below). This number makes the red line (which points to rising unemployment and economic contraction) back in the game (matching my macro outlook which, as of last week, was unsupported by this data series).  

 

  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -23.5

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 513,347 in the week ending July 10, an increase of 44,855 from the previous week. There were 671,242 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100715yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another excellent data point on the Global Financial Crisis over Internet Bubble chart below. Looks to me like the green line "wins". As far as this one data series is concerned (and it is a leading indicator), things are now getting better and unemployment should also start improving. I'm pretty bearish on the economy apart from this data series, but this data series is bullish, IMHO. NOTE: The market doesn't seem to interpret this week's data as I do. As of 8:53AM, the S&P 500 has dropped .3% and gold has jumped .3% seemingly in response to this data. I guess US large-cap stock investors think it is a bearish number and the gold bulls think bearish economic data means more QE is coming.    

  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 513,347 in the week ending July 10, an increase of 44,855 from the previous week. There were 671,242 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100715yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another excellent data point on the Global Financial Crisis over Internet Bubble chart below. Looks to me like the green line "wins". As far as this one data series is concerned (and it is a leading indicator), things are now getting better and unemployment should also start improving. I'm pretty bearish on the economy apart from this data series, but this data series is bullish, IMHO. NOTE: The market doesn't seem to interpret this week's data as I do. As of 8:53AM, the S&P 500 has dropped .3% and gold has jumped .3% seemingly in response to this data. I guess US large-cap stock investors think it is a bearish number and the gold bulls think bearish economic data means more QE is coming.    

  

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -20.3%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 463,560 in the week ending July 3, an increase of 22,560 from the previous week. There were 581,145 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100708yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Excellent data point on the Global Financial Crisis over Internet Bubble chart below. I expect this week's point will be similar as next week's Internet Bubble data point is really bad at 552K claims. Still, its hard to tell from these data points whether the job loss situation is improving relative to the Internet Bubble (see green line) or whether we've got a handful of anomalous data points and the situation is dismal (see red line). 

 

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 463,560 in the week ending July 3, an increase of 22,560 from the previous week. There were 581,145 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100708yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Excellent data point on the Global Financial Crisis over Internet Bubble chart below. I expect this week's point will be similar as next week's Internet Bubble data point is really bad at 552K claims. Still, its hard to tell from these data points whether the job loss situation is improving relative to the Internet Bubble (see green line) or whether we've got a handful of anomalous data points and the situation is dismal (see red line). 

 

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -21.1%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 440,701 in the week ending June 12, an increase of 44,112 from the previous week. There were 558,407 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100617yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - In the 2010 vs 2003 chart below, the anomalous 2003 value (which made last week's point look much better) has passed and we have returned to the situation where jobless claims are failing to fall far enough to both:

• be as good as in June 2003 (when unemployment bottomed for that economic downturn) or
• to fall far enough to allow current unemployment to start improving.

The previous economic downturn had a "jobless" recovery and this economy is failing to do as well as that "recovery". I'm expecting a "double-dip" downturn in the official GDP numbers at this point. I am now changing my unemployment forecast.

Previously I was expecting (based on the next two graphs below [see green line] for unemployment to start improving sometime around now (June 2010). At this point, the red line is about the best you can hope for (a topping of unemployment some months out). The third chart shows that year over year initial jobless claims have bottomed and are edging higher. This is a leading economic indicator supporting the idea that the second leg down of the double-dip economic downturn has (or shortly will have) started.   

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 440,701 in the week ending June 12, an increase of 44,112 from the previous week. There were 558,407 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100617yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - In the 2010 vs 2003 chart below, the anomalous 2003 value (which made last week's point look much better) has passed and we have returned to the situation where jobless claims are failing to fall far enough to both:

• be as good as in June 2003 (when unemployment bottomed for that economic downturn) or
• to fall far enough to allow current unemployment to start improving.

The previous economic downturn had a "jobless" recovery and this economy is failing to do as well as that "recovery". I'm expecting a "double-dip" downturn in the official GDP numbers at this point. I am now changing my unemployment forecast.

Previously I was expecting (based on the next two graphs below [see green line] for unemployment to start improving sometime around now (June 2010). At this point, the red line is about the best you can hope for (a topping of unemployment some months out). The third chart shows that year over year initial jobless claims have bottomed and are edging higher. This is a leading economic indicator supporting the idea that the second leg down of the double-dip economic downturn has (or shortly will have) started.   

 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -24.6%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,940 in the week ending May 15, a decrease of 1,819 from the previous week. There were 540,925 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100520yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another pretty big/bad deviation from the previously consistent trend (see graph below). I am now changing my unemployment forecast. Previously I was expecting (based on the two graphs below [see green line] for unemployment to start improving sometime around June 2010. With these last two data points I expect the point of improving unemployment to be at least several months out [red line]. This matches the rest of my recently changed macro view: Europe (which had .5% GDP growth in Q1 of 2010) is already back in a downturn and is going to drag the already-weak USA (and probably the rest of the world) into a double-dip downturn. There's no telling at this point how deep that downturn will be.   

 

  
  

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,940 in the week ending May 15, a decrease of 1,819 from the previous week. There were 540,925 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100520yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Another pretty big/bad deviation from the previously consistent trend (see graph below). I am now changing my unemployment forecast. Previously I was expecting (based on the two graphs below [see green line] for unemployment to start improving sometime around June 2010. With these last two data points I expect the point of improving unemployment to be at least several months out [red line]. This matches the rest of my recently changed macro view: Europe (which had .5% GDP growth in Q1 of 2010) is already back in a downturn and is going to drag the already-weak USA (and probably the rest of the world) into a double-dip downturn. There's no telling at this point how deep that downturn will be.   

 

  
  

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -28.6%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,267 in the week ending May 8, an increase of 11,132 from the previous week. There were 570,412 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100513yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Pretty big/bad deviation from the previously consistent trend (see graph below). One more data point like this and I'll start looking at changing my unemployment forecast. For now it is: Still on track for unemployment to start improving sometime around June 2010. This is now not that far away. Here's my old blurb explaining this: The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

  
  

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,267 in the week ending May 8, an increase of 11,132 from the previous week. There were 570,412 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100513yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Pretty big/bad deviation from the previously consistent trend (see graph below). One more data point like this and I'll start looking at changing my unemployment forecast. For now it is: Still on track for unemployment to start improving sometime around June 2010. This is now not that far away. Here's my old blurb explaining this: The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

  
  

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -27.5%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 423,286 in the week ending April 24, a decrease of 11,171 from the previous week. There were 583,457 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100429).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - NO CHANGE. Still on track for unemployment to start improving sometime around June 2010. This is now not that far away. Here's my old blurb explaining this: The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

  
 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 423,286 in the week ending April 24, a decrease of 11,171 from the previous week. There were 583,457 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100429).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - NO CHANGE. Still on track for unemployment to start improving sometime around June 2010. This is now not that far away. Here's my old blurb explaining this: The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

  
 

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Producer Price Index Up 6.1%

Here's the summary for today's Labor Department's producer price report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Wholesale prices rise by 0.7 percent in March due to sharp jump in food costs... Wholesale prices rose more than expected last month as food prices surged by the most in 26 years." 
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Unadjusted Index = 179.2, Unadjusted Index From Previous Year's News Release: 168.9
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100422yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Major smack-down for the deflationistas which comes at a time when the dollar has been pretty strong. Seems a like significant precursor of consumer price rises. The graph that follows is a scary-looking graph. I would say this is the worst government release economic data point I've seen in months.

Questions for the reader:

1. Is it a coincidence that AP describes it as a .7% increase rather than an annualized increase (e.g. 8.4%) or a year-over-year (6.1%) increase.
2. Is it a coincidence that gold and silver got pulled down hard before a bad inflation numbers release?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -27.63%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 431,740 in the week ending April 17, a decrease of 79,187 from the previous week. There were 596,564 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100422yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track for unemployment to start improving something after June 2010. Here's my old blurb explaining this: The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. If anything, the initial jobless claims (relative to 2003) may be dropping a little faster than previous estimates. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 







 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 431,740 in the week ending April 17, a decrease of 79,187 from the previous week. There were 596,564 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100422yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track for unemployment to start improving something after June 2010. Here's my old blurb explaining this: The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. If anything, the initial jobless claims (relative to 2003) may be dropping a little faster than previous estimates. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 







 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Next Week's Interventionals: Sunny And Nice All Week

Last week the interventionals called for mostly sunny with potential trouble on Wednesday when the CPI numbers came out. Gold was flat until Friday when it got creamed along with everything else with the Goldman Sachs indictment. I'll leave it to you, dear reader, to clarify for me whether this was an interventional takedown or just natural market volatility.

Here's a nice message board post on whether the S&P was manipulated on Friday (click here). Sevenmilebch is someone I can learn a thing or two from.

My evaluation of the Indian Rupee and recent Indian gold buying indicates that conditions are favorable for Indian gold buying Sunday night allowing a recovery pop for Gold's open on Monday.

Next week has nothing on the interventional calendar that I can see. Gold options expiration is the week after next (Tuesday 4/27).

Here's my view of next week's scheduled market events (BOLD CAPs for events which the Gold Cartel traditionally uses as an excuse hit the price of gold) that I consider noteworthy.

• Mon 10:00, Conference Board Index Of Leading Economic Indicators - I'm trying to spin up on how to interpret the individual components of this.
• Tues, nothing.
• Wed, nothing.
• Thurs 8:30, Producer Price Index - I'm always on the look out for inflation (or deflation). You would think with commodities having risen the way they have that we'd see some producer price inflation.
• Thurs 10:00, Existing Home Sales - worth taking a peek at.
• Fri, 8:30AM, Durable Goods - I like looking at the book to bill ratio (orders to shipments).
• Fri, 10:00AM, New Home Sales - worth tracking as a gauge of the overall economy.

Leave me a comment if I'm missing something or if there are better data sources that you know of for this kind of thing.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Sources: I like Bloomberg's economic calendar (click here) and little better than yahoo's (click here) because it covers the treasury auctions. The best one I've found for international is here, but I usually don't have the time to follow it.The next options expiration date is: 3/25/2010. Here's a link to a good 2010 calendar (click here).

Last week the interventionals called for mostly sunny with potential trouble on Wednesday when the CPI numbers came out. Gold was flat until Friday when it got creamed along with everything else with the Goldman Sachs indictment. I'll leave it to you, dear reader, to clarify for me whether this was an interventional takedown or just natural market volatility.

Here's a nice message board post on whether the S&P was manipulated on Friday (click here). Sevenmilebch is someone I can learn a thing or two from.

My evaluation of the Indian Rupee and recent Indian gold buying indicates that conditions are favorable for Indian gold buying Sunday night allowing a recovery pop for Gold's open on Monday.

Next week has nothing on the interventional calendar that I can see. Gold options expiration is the week after next (Tuesday 4/27).

Here's my view of next week's scheduled market events (BOLD CAPs for events which the Gold Cartel traditionally uses as an excuse hit the price of gold) that I consider noteworthy.

• Mon 10:00, Conference Board Index Of Leading Economic Indicators - I'm trying to spin up on how to interpret the individual components of this.
• Tues, nothing.
• Wed, nothing.
• Thurs 8:30, Producer Price Index - I'm always on the look out for inflation (or deflation). You would think with commodities having risen the way they have that we'd see some producer price inflation.
• Thurs 10:00, Existing Home Sales - worth taking a peek at.
• Fri, 8:30AM, Durable Goods - I like looking at the book to bill ratio (orders to shipments).
• Fri, 10:00AM, New Home Sales - worth tracking as a gauge of the overall economy.

Leave me a comment if I'm missing something or if there are better data sources that you know of for this kind of thing.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Sources: I like Bloomberg's economic calendar (click here) and little better than yahoo's (click here) because it covers the treasury auctions. The best one I've found for international is here, but I usually don't have the time to follow it.The next options expiration date is: 3/25/2010. Here's a link to a good 2010 calendar (click here).

• Mon 10:00, Conference Board Index Of Leading Economic Indicators - I'm trying to spin up on how to interpret the individual components of this.
• Tues, nothing.
• Wed, nothing.
• Thurs 8:30, Producer Price Index - I'm always on the look out for inflation (or deflation). You would think with commodities having risen the way they have that we'd see some producer price inflation.
• Thurs 10:00, Existing Home Sales - worth taking a peek at.
• Fri, 8:30AM, Durable Goods - I like looking at the book to bill ratio (orders to shipments).
• Fri, 10:00AM, New Home Sales - worth tracking as a gauge of the overall economy.

Leave me a comment if I'm missing something or if there are better data sources that you know of for this kind of thing.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Sources: I like Bloomberg's economic calendar (click here) and little better than yahoo's (click here) because it covers the treasury auctions. The best one I've found for international is here, but I usually don't have the time to follow it.The next options expiration date is: 3/25/2010. Here's a link to a good 2010 calendar (click here).

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -33.5%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 414,657 in the week ending April 3, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week. There were 623,279 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100408yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This have become cleared since my last such post. The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. If anything, the initial jobless claims (relative to 2003) may be dropping a little faster than previous estimates. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 






 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 414,657 in the week ending April 3, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week. There were 623,279 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100408yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This have become cleared since my last such post. The data is pointing strongly towards a top in unemployment in June 2010. If anything, the initial jobless claims (relative to 2003) may be dropping a little faster than previous estimates. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 






 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -29.5%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,287 in the week ending March 6, a decrease of 10,969 from the previous week. There were 652,636 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100311yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. Another data point keeping us on track for a top in unemployment in June 2010. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 





 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,287 in the week ending March 6, a decrease of 10,969 from the previous week. There were 652,636 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100311yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. Another data point keeping us on track for a top in unemployment in June 2010. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 





 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year Unadjusted: Monthly Department Of Labor Non-Farms Payroll Report

Here's my take on the Labor Department's monthly unemployment report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here and here and here.
• Key Numbers: Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Depart Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 236,998,000 vs 234,913,000 year ago. Not Seasonally Adjusted Employed: 137,203,000 vs 140,105,000. Seasonally Adjusted Private Hours Worked Per Week: 33.1 vs 33.2.   
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100305yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This data series that things are still worse than a year ago, but are bottoming. The spread between the light green and dark green bars and the light blue and dark blue bars in the graph below is narrowing.

 Let me know where I've got it wrong.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -27%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims drop after rising for 2 weeks... New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 471,720 in the week ending Feb. 27, an increase of 17,128 from the previous week. There were 645,827 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Quite a nice data point which puts us back on track for a bottoming of unemployment in June 2010. The bright green line looks a lot better than it has for weeks. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 





 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims drop after rising for 2 weeks... New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 471,720 in the week ending Feb. 27, an increase of 17,128 from the previous week. There were 645,827 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Quite a nice data point which puts us back on track for a bottoming of unemployment in June 2010. The bright green line looks a lot better than it has for weeks. At the current trend the initial jobless claims in June will be less than they were in June of 2003 when unemployment peaked for that downturn. 

 





 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -23%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs... The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,468 in the week ending Feb. 20, a decrease of 25,767 from the previous week. There were 605,668 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which which continues to look ugly. I'm thinking the dark red line characterizes the trend and that we won't see a peak in unemployment until late 2010 if the trend continues. We are looking at an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 




 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs... The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,468 in the week ending Feb. 20, a decrease of 25,767 from the previous week. There were 605,668 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which which continues to look ugly. I'm thinking the dark red line characterizes the trend and that we won't see a peak in unemployment until late 2010 if the trend continues. We are looking at an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 




 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department Building Permits Down 8.5% And Housing Starts Up 18.5%

Here's the summary for the yesterday's Commerce Department's New Residential Construction release:

• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places Not Seasonally Adjusted, This Month=39,400, Year Ago=36,300. New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started Not Seasonally Adjusted: This Month=37,800, Year Ago=31,900.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation: There has been a recent recovery in housing (after some really dismal lows in Spring 2009). 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places Not Seasonally Adjusted, This Month=39,400, Year Ago=36,300. New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started Not Seasonally Adjusted: This Month=37,800, Year Ago=31,900.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation: There has been a recent recovery in housing (after some really dismal lows in Spring 2009). 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: USA Retail Sales Up 3.2%

I'm catching up on my economics data. This is from 2/12/2010. Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $323,688,000,000 vs 2008: $313,593,000,000.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A disappointing month pointing to a slowing recovery (see graph below).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $323,688,000,000 vs 2008: $313,593,000,000.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A disappointing month pointing to a slowing recovery (see graph below).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $323,688,000,000 vs 2008: $313,593,000,000.
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A disappointing month pointing to a slowing recovery (see graph below).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -23%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise unexpectedly... The number of newly laid-off workers filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly surged last week after having fallen sharply in the previous week. The gain dampened hopes about how quickly the labor market may improve this year."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 476,730 in the week ending Feb. 13, a decrease of 30,850 from the previous week. There were 619,951 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which is getting uglier. Which of the three lines looks like it best tracks the data? For me it used to be the green line where claims would match the previous recession around June (when unemployment bottomed for the Internet Bubble recession peaked). The dark red line looks like a better fit now and the bright red line looks like a contender. Both red lines indicate an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 



 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -29%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims fall more than expected... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week to the lowest total in a month, a hopeful sign the job market may be improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 504,661 in the week ending Feb. 6, a decrease of 28,640 from the previous week. There were 710,152 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100211yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 


 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims fall more than expected... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week to the lowest total in a month, a hopeful sign the job market may be improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 504,661 in the week ending Feb. 6, a decrease of 28,640 from the previous week. There were 710,152 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100211yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 


 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year Unadjusted: Monthly Department Of Non-Farms Payroll Report

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's monthly unemployment report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "January unemployment rate drops to 9.7 percent... The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 9.7 percent from 10 percent while employers shed 20,000 jobs."
• Labor Department News Release: click here and here and here.
• Key Numbers: Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Depart Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 236,832,000 vs 234,739,000 year ago. Not Seasonally Adjusted Employed: 136,809,000 vs 140,436,000. Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Hours Worked Per Week: 33.1 vs 33.2.   
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100205yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This data series shows an uneven change in the genuine employment condition. The employment population ratio continues to fall (the percent of non-institutionalized adjusts employed) and has hit a new low. The hours worked per employed person bumped up some so that the Full Time Employment Population Ratio which assumes that in an ideal world every employed person would get 40 hours of work popped up a bit but is bouncing along at a low level. I calculate the Full Time Employment Population Ratio = (Num Employed / Non-Institutional Adult Population) * (Avg Private Hours Worked Per Week / 40).

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -22.25%, BUT... Potential Trend Change

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims rise unexpectedly... New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 480,000 as layoffs continue, jobs remain scarce... The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 530,405 in the week ending Jan. 30, an increase of 28,234 from the previous week. There were 682,176 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100204yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 

 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., I've been concentrating on my day-job lately. I have a chance to make a real contribution that could pull a 300 person division out of the fire. I do see that its affecting my posting and even my investing edge.

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 3%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $181,082,000,000, Year Ago: $1186,798,000,000, -3.06%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $183,638,000,000, Year Ago: $189,369,000,000, -3.03%, Orders Net Shipments To Shipment Ratio: -1.39%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100128yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Looks like we might see actual year over year growth soon.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department New Home Sales Down 11.5%, Median Price Down 3.6%

Here's my quick look at today's Commerce Department New Home Sales:

• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Houses Sold Unadjusted: 23,000, Year Ago: 26,000, Year Over Year %: -11.54 Median Price Unadjusted: $221,300, Year Ago: $229,600, Year Over Year %: -3.61.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - Still no recovery in housing construction. One oddball thing that appeared in the numbers (that I don't usually report) is that the average house price actually rose year over year (from $263,100 to $290,600) Don't know what to make of that.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.8%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims drop less than expected... New jobless claims, factory order reports disappoint in fresh evidence of an uneven recovery... A drop in new jobless claims came in short of expectations and factory orders rose only slightly, fresh evidence the economy is recovering at a slow, uneven pace."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 500,392 in the week ending Jan. 23, a decrease of 145,417 from the previous week. There were 620,143 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100128yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Consumer Price Index Down +2.72%

Today we cover the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index release from a year-over-year perspective:

• Labor Department News Release: click here and here.
• Key Numbers: The unadjusted index is at 215.949. Same month 2008's press release held 210.228.
• Last Month: -1.4%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091217yoy)

My uneducated interpretation: Consumer price inflation is back as expected.

Unadjusted Year Over Year: USA Retail Sales Up 5.48%

Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $409,230,000,000 vs 2008: $387,964,000,000. Last month unadjusted year over year was down 5.85%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Up nicely year over year. This data series indicates a recovery. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's the year over year summary of today's Commerce Department's retail sales figures:

• Commerce Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Commerce Department Retail And Food Services Sales Unadjusted 2009: $409,230,000,000 vs 2008: $387,964,000,000. Last month unadjusted year over year was down 5.85%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100115yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Up nicely year over year. This data series indicates a recovery. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Year-Over-Year Unadjusted: Monthly Department Of Labor Unemployment

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's monthly unemployment report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Employers unexpectedly cut jobs in December... U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December, government data showed on Friday, cooling optimism on the labor market's recovery and keeping pressure on President Barack Obama."
• Labor Department News Release: click here and here.
• Key Numbers: Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Depart Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 236,924,000 vs 235,035,000 year ago. Not Seasonally Adjusted Employed: 137,953,000 vs 143,350,000. Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Hours Worked Per Week: 33.1 vs 33.2.   
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100108yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - This data series shows the genuine employment condition continuing to degrade. From two months ago, the Full Time Employment Population Ratio = (Num Employed / Non-Institutional Adult Population) * (Avg Private Hours Worked Per Week / 40) has fallen from half a percent (see below). Compared to a year ago it has fallen 2.4%.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.8%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Unemployment-claims data signal job gains are near... A government report Thursday on claims for unemployment aid signaled that layoffs are easing and that the economy could be on the verge of posting the first monthly gain in jobs in two years."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 645,571 in the week ending Jan. 2, an increase of 88,000 from the previous week. There were 731,958 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100107yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Big change from last week in the Recession Over Recession graph as there was a major jump up in initial claims in January 2003 (long after the recession was officially over). Guess I'll have to wait thru the end of January to see if this turns around, but the top in unemployment for this downturn may be sooner than my forecast June 2010 assuming the jobless claims remain substantially better in 2010 than they were in 2003. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 22.3%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims fall unexpectedly as layoffs ease... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, a sign the job market is healing as the economy slowly recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 557,155 in the week ending Dec. 26, a decrease of 8,088 from the previous week. There were 717,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091231yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No change from last week. I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010. From this one data series, it appears that the economy is recovering.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 6%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims, goods orders signal modest rebound... A fitful economic recovery is drawing strength from a stabilizing job market and signs that manufacturing will contribute to the rebound."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $158,670,000,000, Year Ago: $168,735,000, -5.96%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $170,632,000,000, Year Ago: $181,533,000,000, -6%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091224yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Less bad, but still bad with the orders lower than shipment with no improvement. This is bearish report for the economy, although durable goods are a lagging indicator.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 21.9%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims, goods orders signal modest rebound... A fitful economic recovery is drawing strength from a stabilizing job market and signs that manufacturing will contribute to the rebound."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 561,902 in the week ending Dec. 19, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week. There were 719,615 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091224yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-over-year, unadjusted initial jobless claims had a great week (-21.9%), but one that does not change my forecast for unemployment peaking. Based on the recession over recession graph (below) and the previous recession's unemployment graphs (see further below) I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010. From this one data series, it appears that the economy is recovering.

 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.83%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless-aid claims rise, but 4-week average falls... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week as the recovery of the nation's battered labor market proceeds in fits and starts."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,344 in the week ending Dec. 12, a decrease of 107,393 from the previous week. There were 629,867 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091217yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Initial jobless claims have been better, year-over-year, for 6 consecutive weeks. No real change from the last couple of weeks. Based on the recession over recession graph (below) and the previous recession's unemployment graphs (see further below) I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 14%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims fall unexpectedly to 457K... The tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly for the fifth straight week, a hopeful sign that the job market is slowly improving."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,989 in the week ending Nov. 28, a decrease of 78,263 from the previous week. There were 535,730 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091203yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No real change from last week. The recession over recession graph (below) is trending downward, but we are still 75,000 initial jobless claims a week higher in 2009 than we were in 2002 (see graph below). At the current trend 2010 jobless claims should match 2003 jobless claims around the beginning June of 2010. Unemployment for the Internet Bubble recession peaked in Q2 2003. So, I'm forecasting (along with the herd) a peak in unemployment around June 2010. By the way, looking at 2003 below, I see that employment only went up by 1/2 a percent from the end of 2002 to the peak, so I'm forecasting unemployment staying in the 10s for 2010.

 

The unemployment rate peaked in the previous recession in June of 2003 (at a measly 6.3%) (see Bureau Of Labor Statistics graph below). 

This is pretty crude, but at least it has a couple of graphs to back it up. I'd really like to be bearish, but the initial jobless claims data doesn't support it.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 10.7%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims dip, spending up in sign of rebound... In a hopeful sign for the economy, the number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell below 500,000 last week for the first time since January."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21, an increase of 68,080 from the previous week. There were 609,138 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091119yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-Over-Year initial jobless claims were significantly lower than last year. This means that fewer people are losing their jobs now than a year ago. This week, being around Thanksgiving, appears in the historical data to have quite a bit of volatility. Here's a way of looking at when unemployment might peak.

We are still 100,000 initial jobless claims a week higher in 2009 than we were in 2002 (see graph below), but are trending downward. At the current trend 2010 jobless claims should match 2003 jobless claims around the beginning June of 2010. 

The unemployment rate peaked in the previous recession in June of 2003 (at a measly 6.3%) (see Bureau Of Labor Statistics graph below). 

So, extrapolating from the current initial jobless claims relative to the 2001/2002 recession and the unemployment peak from the 2001/2002 recession, gives us an estimated unemployment peak for the current downturn of June 2010.

This is pretty crude, but at least it has a couple of graphs to back it up.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., As much as I admire Karl Deninger's work, I find today's post where he questions the seasonal adjustment to be hysterical (without looking into earlier years to see where the seasonal adjustments came from) and to be a case where he is forcing his viewpoint on the data rather than letting the data speak to him.

Year Over Year: China Electricity Consumption Grows 16%

If this data is reliable, it indicates that the Chinese economy is growing robustly.This data is kind of hard to find. The latest data point was, apparently, released in China (click here) on Nov 13, 2009 but came out in an English news story only today.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 6.57%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless benefit claims unchanged at 505K... The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance was unchanged last week, remaining above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 479,295 in the week ending Nov. 14, a decrease of 53,132 from the previous week. There were 513,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091119yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-Over-Year initial jobless claims were lower than last year significantly. This means that fewer people are losing their jobs now than a year ago. However, looking at the absolute numbers leads me to the conclusion that things are still getting worse, but not as quickly as last year. As you can see below, we are still:

• 200K lost jobs per week higher than "the good times" and
• 100K lost jobs per week higher than 2001 to 2003 Internet Bubble recression and
• It took at least a year (Q1 2003 to Q1 2004) at the end of the last recession to have initial jobless claims drop 100K. To me it looks like we are still at least a year away from having unemployment peak!.

However, here's what the AP says about how this number must change to get to the point where the economy is adding jobs: "While the steady decline in claims is evidence that firings are decreasing, most economists say weekly claims would have to fall to about 425,000 for several weeks to signal that the economy is actually adding jobs. Some economists put the number higher, around 475,000." The AP doesn't mention that we need to get to the point where the economy is adding at least 100K jobs/month to get the unemployment number to stop rising. So, this basically confirms my outlook that things are still getting worse as far as employment goes. 

P.S., I'm still monitoring various other economic numbers but am only posting entries when convenient as I haven't gotten any reader complaints about missing the industrial production, housing permits/starts and other posts.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Down 2%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims fall more than expected to 502K... New claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected last week, evidence the job market is slowly healing as the economy recovers."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 529,446 in the week ending Nov. 7, an increase of 46,904 from the previous week. There were 539,787 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091112yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-Over-Year initial jobless claims fell for the first time since the start of the downturn. This means that fewer people are losing their jobs now than a year. However, looking at the absolute numbers leads me to the conclusion that things are still getting worse, but not as quickly as last year. As you can see below, we are still:

• 200K lost jobs per week higher than "the good times" and
• 100K lost jobs per week higher than 2001 to 2003 Internet Bubble recression and
• It took at least a year (Q1 2003 to Q1 2004) at the end of the last recession to have initial jobless claims drop 100K. To me it looks like we are still at least a year away from having unemployment peak!.

 


MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 3%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New jobless claims drop to 512K, lowest since Jan.... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to the lowest level in 10 months, evidence that job cuts are easing as the economy slowly heals."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 480,178 in the week ending Oct. 31, a decrease of 14,216 from the previous week. There were 466,341 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. "
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091015yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - A better than usual data point. Someday soon I expect we'll have a positive year-over-year number. But it still seems to me that initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising and will continue to rise for some time.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., its not worth mentioning because it happens every week, but even though things are getting worse (initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising), AP insists on assuming that things are getting better.

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims Up 9.6%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims drop less than expected... The number of people claiming jobless benefits for the first time dropped less than expected last week, evidence that the labor market remains weak even as the economy is recovering."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 492,456 in the week ending Oct. 24, an increase of 32,026 from the previous week. There were 449,389 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091015yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - No news here. Initial jobless claims were bad again this week and still 100K over the same point in time for 2002. Mid-october 2002 was the Internet Bubble crash's stock-market low and unemployment didn't start falling until Q2 2003 (see graph below). Seems to me that initial jobless claims indicate that unemployment is still rising and will continue to rise for some time. Based on the economy, the stock market is due for a correction, but I'm expecting it to rise on sentiment/psychological factors thru the end of the year. 

 
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Commerce Department New Home Sales Down 11.4%, Median Price Down 9%

Here's my quick look at today's Commerce Department New Home Sales:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "New home sales fall 3.6 percent... Sales of new U.S. homes dropped unexpectedly last month as the effects of a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time owners started to wane." 
• Department Of Commerce News Release: click here.
• Key Numbers: New Houses Sold Unadjusted: 31,000, Year Ago: 35,000, Year Over Year %: 11.43. Median Price Unadjusted: $204,800, Year Ago: $225,200, Year Over Year %: -9.06.

Here's my uneducated (also not not spun by guys trying to make you a sucker) interpretation - A bad set of numbers which indicate that perhaps the so-called housing "recovery" is over. I think the housing market is a big illiquid market that trends heavily, so I'll stick with year-over-year numbers for now. I think next month's numbers will be especially telling.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Unadjusted Year Over Year: Census Department Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Down 19%

Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Durable goods orders rise 1 percent in September... Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in September as the biggest jump in demand for machinery in 18 months offset weakness in commercial aircraft and autos."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $176,505,000,000, Year Ago: $213,675,000,000, -17.40%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $185,889,000,000, Year Ago: $219,940,000,000, -15.48%
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091028yoy)

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Unadjusted shipments and orders remain down hard year-over-year, but are getting better year over year slowly. The orders to shipment ratio remains under 100% meaning orders are not coming in fast enough to allow shipments to grow. This is bearish report for the economy, although durable goods are a lagging indicator.

Looking at the graph below, you see that the shipments (year over year) and orders (year over year) are still down hard but improving and are better than the net shipments ratio. I expect that this "improvement" will continue for sometime converging on the net shipments ratio. This will indicate a steady contraction of the economy until they all close in on zero. Based on the current rate of change that will about about January 2011.

AP Spin - no matter how bad the numbers are, AP persists in their spin that some kind of recovery is underway. They refuse to admit the possibility that the economy is still (and could for some time) continue to contract.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us