World Of Wallstreet

Off Topic: Ebay Now On My "Avoid Whenever Possible" List

This may sound trivial, but I spend thousands of dollars a year on online purchases and expect good service. 

Every time I use ebay (pretty seldomly lately), I find a new reason (today two reasons) not to like them:

1. The "you won" like is now automated to give you a lower resolution picture of the item purchased with no covenient way of looking at the original description of the item. The message I receive: Ebay wants you to hurry up and pay and doesn't care about what I want (which is to see the details of what I bought).
2. Contacting Ebay - there is now no way to give Ebay general feedback about your shopping experience. They could at least have a little Internet bitch form where they could total up complaints but they just don't make the effort. The message I receive: Ebay really doesn't care about me, they just care about minimizing their customer care costs.

Prior items include:

• Ebay owned paypal really wanting to get their hands on my bank account (and not letting me pay with my credit card which is my preference).
• Ebay owned paypal has not added a "do you really, really want to use your credit card screen" even after making me expressly state my preference for credit card.

Message Received: Ebay really doesn't care about me the customer and is willing to intentionally hassle me when it suits their purpose.

Guess I'll just stay away whenever I can.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic: Best Piece On Global Warming That I've Seen

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/87/8751cover.html, cover story from Chemical & Engineering News which is a weekly magazine published by the American Chemical Society. It tries to deal with the science (and related evidence) rather than just relying on the usual authority arguments (there is a scientific "consensus").

I find, after reading this 17 page paper, that:

• Global warming is really complicated and even in 17 pages the evidence can't stand on its own. The article has way to much he says, she says and not enough look at this graph, look at that graph. 
• My main take away is that CO2 concentration is definitely rising significantly (see graph below). This is the best hard evidence I've seen for man-made global warming. 
• The impact of this CO2 increase remains not well understood. Estimates for the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling in CO2 vary from .6%C (for the warming skeptics) to 2.0%C to 4.5%C for the global warming adherents. This value seems to be the key value in the climate models (and the estimates for the impact of continued CO2 increase).
• As far being "On-Topic", that is, how does this affect investing, I conclude that there seems to be enough real science behind global warming that I don't expect global warming skeptics to make any significant progress against the entrenched "CO2 is pollution" establishment and investments in CO2 producers (e.g. Canadian Oil Sands, Coal Miners) have significant political risk. Should be somewhat bullish for nuclear power (Uranium miners).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., The case for Peak Oil is much, much, much clearer than for Man-Made Global Warming. Seems like a definitely tradable situation. Just wish I had gotten back in with oil in the 60$ last month.

Off Topic? No Wonder The USA Is In Deep, Deep Trouble

http://yearinreview.yahoo.com/2009/top10#top10searches

Look at the trivial stuff America is thinking about.

No wonder the banksters are getting away with destroying the USA economy for their personal profit. This explains why there is not going to be any serious reform in the USA.

 

"Every country gets the government it deserves... good and hard.", Mr. James Dines

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic: Ghengis Khan Quotes

Ghengis Khan : “The greatest happiness is to scatter your enemy, to drive him before you, to see his cities reduced to ashes, to see those who love him shrouded in tears, and to gather into your bosom his wives and daughters."

COMMENT: Now we know where Conan the Barbarian got his to answer to the question: "What is best in life?"

Ghengis Khan: “It is not sufficient that I suceed - all others must fail.”

COMMENT: Quite a contrast to Jesus: "The Son Of Man did not come to be served, but to serve and give his life a ransom for many." The whole tradition of servant leadership (which we expect from our democratic leaders but have been failing to get lately), comes from Jesus.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic: The Rule Of 27

What do you make of this piece? http://isteve.blogspot.com/2009/11/jodys-hbd-magnum-opus.html 

What I found of value is summarized in this quote: "the rule of 27. that is to say, almost all musicians, athletes, and math-based academics perform their best work at or around age 27, and then begin to decline until at about age 40, at which point they no longer produce any important work."

Has a lot to say for my children, nieces and nephews about not farting away their most creative years (and leaves a rather dismal outlook for myself at 53). 

What do you think? I think investing is an old-man's game and most achieve the top of their game over 40. What other areas are there for the over 40 crowd where the verse "grow old with me, the best is yet to be" applies?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic?: Goldman exec named first COO of SEC enforcement

"By MARCY GORDON (AP) – 2 days ago

WASHINGTON — A Goldman Sachs executive has been named the first chief operating officer of the Securities and Exchange Commission's enforcement division."

If that doesn't confirm to you just how desperate a situation the USA is in and how far gone its democracy is then maybe its time to get a clue. 

Doug.................

Off Topic: Good Work If You Can Get It...

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/09/11/interest-on-reserves-seen-as-key-fed-tool/

An article about the Federal Reserve paying interest on bank reserves.

Money Quote: “It’s incredibly important that they have this tool,” said Michael Feroli, an economist with J.P. Morgan Chase. It gives policy makers the breathing room to sell off their considerable store of assets at more leisurely pace, he explained."

 

Translation:  “It’s incredibly important that they have this tool,... It allows JP Morgan Chase and other bankers to get unlimited money from the Federal Reserve which they own and control at no risk to the bankers and without interference from or the consent of the government or taxpayers.”

 

Completely outrageous,

 

MontyHigh

Off Topic: Nobel Prize Economist Stiglitz Says Banking Problems Are Bigger Now...

than before the crisis started.

Here's a piece about nobel prize winning economists view that banking problems are worse now than before the crisis.

This quote provokes a few thoughts:
"Stiglitz said the U.S. government is wary of challenging the financial industry because it is politically difficult".

It begs the question, what is politically difficult about challenging the banks? You would think the banks would be a fat populist target with little voter support. In a democracy where "majority rules" you would think they'd be in a lot of trouble. What makes them difficult to challenge? Is it:
(a) They have a huge number of voters standing behind them like the unions? No,
(b) They control TV and newspapers which shape public debate? No, not directly.
It most be something hidden and sinister. The fact that they got that 700 billion dollar TARP money when voters phoned in against it 100 to 1 shows that the hidden, sinister political power of the banks is very real as Stiglitz alludes. It begs the question, where does this power come from and what hold do the bankers have over our politicians?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off-Topic: Mad As Hell At DC Tea Party

I attended the DC Tea party today. I wish I had brought my camera as pictures of the signs being carried would really help you capture what the protesters are thinking.

Living outside of DC, I've been to many protests and gatherings on the Mall (Nixon's Reinauguration Protest, Marches for Life, Promise Keepers, 4^th Of July Fireworks, etc.).

SIDENOTE: As a result of the President Bush / Republicans obvious corruption surrounding the financial crisis (and stupid wars and the Republican's porking out when they finally got in power rather than reforming anything), I am cured of being a “social conservative”. I'm more in the Bill Bonner all politicians are lying and self-serving camp right now. So I'm mostly trying to report to you what I saw and heard rather spin some particular political agenda.

UPDATE: I'm removing all crowd size estimates from this post because the photos I saw on TV after coming home were clearly larger than what I could see on the ground on location when I left around 12:30PM. I expect that the crowd continued to grow after I left and I probably didn't see the entire size of the crowd that was present when I left. My earlier estimates were wrong.

Unlike other things I've gone to, with a well-planned out program and name-brand speakers and everything ho-hum we all agree, this was way more grass-roots. Every sign was home-made expressing the individual's view point and with their own slogan.

The best part about being there was conversations with folks who were coming. Here's some examples of representative opinion:

Q: What is this about? Being taxed too much or about the corruption of government by both parties. A: Mostly about corruption.

Q: Who are the main spokesman for what this is about? A: Nobody really gets it. Glenn Beck comes the closest. No mentions of Rush Limbaugh. A couple of Hannity mentions.

My sense is that most of the people there used to be “social conservatives”, but got so burnt out by Bush 2 and the trough-feeding by the post-Contract-With-America Republicans in power that now they are basically in the I'm mad as hell, “throw the bums” non-partisans.

Some of the key ideas/slogans were:

“You Work For Me” - these folks have concluded that the politicians exist just to feather their own beds and their big buck-insider pals.

“No Obama Health Care” - my conclusion is that this is a case where folks realize that the reason why the Obama health-care plan is so nebulous is because the politicians are clearly lying and that it would never pass (be acceptable to the public) if it was clearly stated because it is intended to benefit the Washington insiders (and their elite pals) and screw the “hard-working”.

"You Lie" - applies especially to Obama, but also to all of the politicians in congress. 

There was no clear fingering of the banksters or any other corporations (other than a resentment of the mainstream media). No much anti-Federal Reserve talk. The hostility was focused against unlistening politicians, power-hungy politicians and politicians taking/spending other people's money especially not for those people's own good.

The fact that the attendees were not listened to during the whole “TARP” bailout thing (and ignored / attacked by the press) is quite a sore point.

I could not hear any of the speakers at the front. I did hear one sound-bite speaking out against corruption by both Rupublicans and Democrats (to the cheering of the crowd).

My overall impression is that this is politically significant. Its 15 months to go to the next election congressional only election. Ordinarily around DC there would be nothing (especially from the “right”) at this time in the political cycle (they always manage to trot out some kind of “repent America” rally for the social conservatives during presidential election seasons). I expect that, given a lack of improvement in the economy for the average Joe, that this will be quite a bit bigger next year (say ½ million), better organized with a “throw the bums out” attitude.

This is clearly not an instrument of the Republican establishment. Its probably more of a threat to them than anyone else as the first step for really making things happen is to clean out the old Republican leadership as anybody who's trying to get in front of this crowd knows.

I think it immediately sucks significant political support out of Obama care, more bailouts, the carbon tax stuff as anyone who is up for reelection and isn't in a politically slam dunk district/state is going to try to avoid getting a “GO HOME” vote from these folks. This goes especially for anyone down south who got in on an anti-bush/pro-change we can believe in stance. This is particularly important in a congressional only election where voter turnout is the key to everything. My guess is that no significant legislation will pass before the next election. 

I'm looking for some Republican to come out of nowhere with a populist, but conservative “stop the corruption” and we Republican's have been part of the problem message.

There were no clear messages I could see for how to stop the corruption, other than returning to the constitution and having honesty and integrity from government officials. This is an area where some work has to happen if this movement is going to go anywhere. There has to be better placement of blame on populist targets (beyond just the existing government and Obama) and a clear, simple message about what to do about it.

I hope you find this report helpful,

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off-Topic: Heisman Trophy Winner Is A Virgin?

Nice piece: http://www.getreligion.org/?p=15424

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic: For My Nephew And Wife - Four Graphs And A Spreadsheet

My nephew, age 28, and wife are getting their careers straightened and want to get on with their lives. He's got a new job about an hour's drive away in Northern Virginia and they need to move closer to the job. They are renting a real hole right now. They think now is a good time for them to buy a house.

Based on my watching the investing scene, I strongly disagree. This article covers the information I expect to give them tomorrow night them that will allow them to make a better informed decision. I'm not familiar with the details of their finances (pay, savings, etc.).

Please feel free to leave a comment here for them if you have something to add, especially if you can say anything about the experience of recent home buyers in Northern Virginia. 

USA House Prices

The graph that follows provides a graph of USA house prices that goes back to the late 90s. Housing is an illiquid market (meaning it costs a lot to buy and sell and it is hard to find a buyer if you are a seller) and these kind of markets trend strongly. That means if prices are rising, you can expect them to continue to rise and if prices are falling you can expect them to continue to fall. This is especially true of house prices going back a century. You can see this clearly in the graph below in that prices rose every year from 1992 through 2006. That's a 14 year trend. We are now three years into a down trend with no signs that the down trend is ending. This means we can expect to see house prices continue to fall.

The graph also provides a RED, BOLD long term trend line. This line shows that house prices were rising reasonably steadily throughout the 1990s at around the inflation rate (as they have generally done for around a century). Beginning in 1998, house prices started rising much faster than the long term trend (unnaturally fast). In investing parlance, the price went "parabolic". House prices were in a bubble that popped in 2006.

Its pretty clear from prior history with bubbles, that house prices can be expected to continue falling back to their original trend and will probably (as was the case with high tech stocks with the tech bubble) over shoot and fall far below the trend. So, we have good reason to believe that house prices will continue to fall another 10% (to approximately year 2000 house prices) and can be expected to very probably fall another 20 to 30%.

Long Term USA House Prices

Here's the "just updated" Case-Shiller 100 year home price chart. The main point I see is just how "unnatural" the recent housing bubble was.

Washington DC Metropolitan Area House Prices

Here's the graph for the Washington DC area.

This graph shows that:

1. House prices in the Washington DC area were even more in a bubble than the rest of the country (and will presumably have further to fall).
2. Despite the fact that the Washington DC area is insulated from the economic downturn by all those secure cushy government jobs and the cushy, secure jobs of the corporate wonks that support the government, area house prices are falling hard with absolutely no sign of a change of trend.
3. CONCLUSION: House prices in the Washington DC area can be expected fall at least back to 2000 prices (another 30%) and could easily fall below trend (40%, 50% or 60%).

Mortgage Resets

The graph below shows the number of adjustable rate mortgages that have recently reset or are about to reset. The first wave of those resets (sub prime mortgages) are what triggered the recent wave of housing foreclosures. These were loans given to people with no money down and with bad credit. When they reset, their monthly payments rose and these "home owners" could no longer afford the houses and they were (mostly) foreclosed.

The graph above shows that right now there is a relative lull in mortgage resets. This is the case even while house prices continue to plummet. It shows that in September the mortgage resets start ramping up. Of particular interest in the ramp up of Option Adjustable Rate mortgages and Alt-A mortgages. Here's the low-down on these:

• Option Adjustable Mortgages - these are mortgages that were given to buyers with no money down where they could pick a very low "teaser rate" for the first few years. While on this teaser rate, the principle of the mortgage actually increased. Meanwhile housing prices have fallen. All of the holders of these mortgages are underwater, which means they owe more on the house (much more) than the house is worth. The plan was for the price of the house to rise and before the reset came, the homeowner would refinance into a better mortgage. These mortgages, after they reset, have much higher interest rates than a regular mortgage would have had. The bottom line is that these homeowners are stuck with these after reset interest rates and most of these homes are going into foreclosure (triggering further house price declines).
  
• Alt-A Mortgages - these mortgages were given without documentation (with no proof of employment) with zero money down. All of these mortgages are also underwater and will probably be foreclosed on.

The bottom line is that there is very strong, clear evidence that another large wave of home foreclosures is coming that will very, very probably drive home prices down further. This will continue until mid 2012. So, we have another, independent, method that points strongly to another three years of falling house prices.
 

A Spreadsheet For The Next Three Years

The spreadsheet below (for the XLS click Download 20090629nephewhousebuy) is a very simple model of the expect profit / loss of buying a house of the approximate value that my nephew is considering buying given various outlooks for house prices over the next 3 years. 

There seems to be a pretty strong case for renting versus buying just on the bare economics.

Now, in the case of my nephew its may come down to trusting experts. So, what kind of expert do you want to trust? Someone who is part of the real-estate industry that benefits from folks buying houses? Someone who has a "this has worked for the last 50 years not counting the last 2 years" perspective? Or... someone who was right about the housing crisis that just occurred.

Click Download 20090606gsrdentonhousing for a segment of the Gold Seek Radio Chris Waltzek interviews Harry S. Dent who did correctly predict the housing downturn. That was a really, really useful interview and I recommend it highly.

What do you think? Will my nephew buy this argument? Should he?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic: Latest On The H1N1 Influenza

Denninger delivers another great scoop (where is the mainstream media?):

"CDC is now estimating that the novel H1N1 virus will be “Category 2” in severity. They are closely watching the situation in the Southern Hemisphere for validation of this estimate.

A category 2 pandemic has the following characteristics:
• Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.
• Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).
• Excess death rate of between 30 to less than 150 per 100,000 people.
• Illness rate of between 20 and 40 percent.
• Similar to 1957 pandemic."

Seems like a big deal. Where is the mainstream media? Here's what trends.google.com has to say about media coverage of H1N1:

It says that the coverage is falling while the threat is growing. Another clear indication of why TV news ratings are in toilet, why the news papers are going bankrupt. Its a waste of time giving these guys any attention. You just can't count on these guys to cover what is important to the reader / watcher.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.com

MontyTrans: Obama "America Is Already Broke..."

Inspired by the amazing Inca Kola News "Otto Trans" which translate Jr mining news releases from "company spin" to what's actually going on, I'm going to start "MontyTrans". MontyTrans gives you what I think is the actual meaning of what the establishment figure, in this case President Obama, is saying.

Obama: "If we do not fix our health care system, America may go the way of GM -- paying more, getting less, and going broke."

MontyTrans: "America, like GM, is already broke and so from now on we have to ration your health care, cut the pay of health-care providers and kill the health insurance companies."

Rationale: A country's leader, responsible for maintaing confidence in his economy, does not say the economy will go broke unless it already is. America must be already broke.

The only way to significantly save money on health care, when adding a beauracratic layer to what is already in place, is by (1) reducing the amount of health care provided (aka rationing), (2) cutting the pay of health-care providers and (3) squeezing insurance companies (probably out of existence). Squeezing the insurance companies doesn't bother me. I expect all three are going to happen. If they are going to do (1) and (2), they at least need to do (3).

The rich in America will end up outsourcing their health care to India, Thailand, Bahamas, etc. I don't know if I and my family will fit in that category.

That's how I see it. How do you see it? What other changes do you see coming given that America is broke already?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

What The Heck? 134B$ Of Real Or Counterfeit 1B$ And $500M US Treasury Bonds

Here's [click here] a wild story you gotta check out. Wildest thing that seems likely to be true I've seen in the news for a while.

MontyHigh

Off Topic?: Flu Pandemic Update

On May 7, I put up some scary graphs about what would happen if the flu pandemic kept growing at its current rate (click here). This post compares what actually happened compared to those projections. It then provides revised projections based on the actual records. The data comes from the World Health Organization via www.urbansurvival.com.

This graph shows that the number of cases has quadrupled since May 7, but that even so it has not kept up with the original estimates. Neither have the deaths.

The graphs below provide a revised extrapolation based on a growth rate of 16.74% per day and death rate of .85% of cases. This matches what has been seen between May 7 and today. This still show the entire population getting the flu before the end of the summer, but the number of fatalities has fallen to a little under 60 million. Still seems like a big deal that is not getting adequate coverage.


MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

FWIW, here's the primitive spreadsheet this is based on.

News To Me: Insider Trading Is Legal...

for some: " insider trading is actually LEGAL within the halls of Congress - that's right, Congress and their staff is not prohibited from trading in front of legislation nor are Congressfolk and their staff required to hold their investments in blind trusts!"

Karl Denninger strikes again (click here)!

Will Americans ever wake up to the rampant corruption that controls our political system and throw these bums out? Is there any solution to the current concentration of power inside USA politics, finance and media?

MontyHigh

Off Topic: Musing On Money And Wealth

To try to understand the relation between money and wealth let's take a look back a few centuries at European history.

The Spaniards came back from the new world with more money (gold and silver) than anyone had ever seen. Did it bring the genuine wealth? I believe what happened was the spent it all on some stupid wars (against Holland, for example) and after that were not a significant player in history and neither did they have an enviable standard ever again.

Conclusion: an abundance of money, even "real", hard gold and silver money does not produce real wealth.

The French in the 1700s invented paper money under the final monarchies, ruined their economy (apparently), had a violent revolution which continued the use of paper money into hyperinflation and yet... pretty shortly after Bonaparte came to power, there was sufficient productivity (wealth) left over to power Bonaparte's conquest of continental Europe. After Bonaparte's bust at waterloo it didn't take long for France to again become a significant power.

Conclusion: horrible monetary problems (e.g. hyperinflation) and even military defeat can cause temporary problems, but does not extinguish a nation's core wealth.

One could argue that China's emergence after 30 years of abysmal government mismanagement demonstrates temporary set backs do not permanently extinguish as nation's core wealth.

Perhaps the United States can emerge from what looks to be a period of monetary and economic chaos in a similar fashion.

MontyHigh

Off Topic (NOT!): Evidence That You Can't Trust The Mainstream News Media

The most important news story of the week is that the head of the NY Fed (number two guy at the Federal Reserve which is the regulator responsible for the banking industry) resigns for corruption after what looks like insider trading on a scale that dwarf's Martha Stewart's (click here). This is at the hear of the banksters empire responsible for the global financial crisis and for the fraud that is destroying millions of innocent worker's pensions.

AND YET...

It doesn't appear on the front page of any of these mainstream news web sites. They are so protecting of the actual powers running this country (the banksters) that they don't even cover this. Friedman will probably be able quietly retire even though he should be locked up for the corruption he has been up to his neck in.

The more I attempt to improve my investing by understanding what's really going on, the more radicalized I become.

The mainstream media is not there to inform you about what is important. It is there to distract you from what's really going on and to deliver your eyeballs to their advertisers. Both parties, all the big media including the big left and right mainstream commentary (and big talk radio) are mostly controlled by the real powers that be and exist to distract, not inform.

That's how I see it. And my change in perspective came only in the last two years, so its not that I'm a long-time nut-job.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

[Does this make you want to visit www.stopthelooting.com?]

Washington Post

CNN

Fox News
 

Off Topic? Flu Story Isn't Over (Looks Worse To Me Than Ever)

Here's the latest numbers courtesy of www.urbansurvival.com (interesting material on this site nearly every day coming out at 9AM).

The thing to look at here is the "% Case Change" which averages out to almost 46% DAILY!. Running a quick spreadsheet (using half that growth rate) we get the following two graphs. They indicate that this may be a pretty darn big story. Now, I'm not an expert and this is a darn crude model, but why doesn't the news media contact some real experts and show us a real model?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic (Sorta, Kinda): Stop The Looting / Start Prosecuting

Stop The Looting / Start Prosecuting refers to the financial fraudsters (and their political and regulatory accomplices) who, through out and out criminal fraud, created this "global financial crisis" and are bankrupting the USA.

To try to do my little part on helping folks demand what might actually change things for the better, I spent (wasted?) a few hours and some bucks printing off the bumper sticker below. If you are interested in getting one on a donation basis (or just want to see a not so flattering photo of me), please check out www.stopthelooting.com.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Off Topic: Karl Denninger Inspired Bumper Sticker

I'm planning on printing up a bunch of these and will let you know how to get one when I have them in-hand. It will be a removable bumper sticker so that it shouldn't permanently damage your paint.

MontyHigh

Off Topic: Why Germany lost WW2 (Amazing Truth Revealed)

Way OT: Why Germany lost WW2 (Amazing Truth Revealed)After many years of debate, Myself and my brother have reached a valid conclusion as to why Germany lost the war. It had nothing to do with the American alliance or D-day. The penetration of French coasts to allow allied troops into mainland Europe was just a spec of dust to what we discovered only days ago.

Germany lost the war simply because: Scissors beats paper

Hat tip to Investor Village's rcollamore.

MontyHigh

I apologize to international visitors who may not get this joke.

Off Topic: Time To Get Real About The US Consitition

As part of trying to get up to speed on "Austrian Economics" I bumped into this MP3 (click here: http://mises.org/multimedia/mp3/MU2008/MC_Woods.mp3) entitled "Who Killed The Constitution" by Thomas E Woods, Jr. Here's the page with the link: http://mises.org/media.aspx?action=category&ID=113.

This was a real eye-opener for me. I've considered myself a small-government, social conservative for decades. I thought the best way forward and preserve our liberties was to get a "conservative" president in to put in "conservative" supreme court justices and to go back to the plain reading of the constitution. This MP3 clearly shows that all three branches of the government have been openly ignoring the clear reading of the US constitution for decades and decades, especially as far as any limitations it puts on the power, scope and reach of the federal government.

Its time to get real about the idea that we should "go back to the constitution". The current government and the way it operate is so far away from the US constitution that this idea is clearly "not real". Its not going to happen. The same guys who hold the levers of power are in charge of deciding what the limits are on that exercise of power. Which means, no limitations.

MontyHigh

Off-Topic: Political Corruption In The USA, Any Progress Visible?

The more I dig into investing, the more I see how corrupt the USA government (and probably every government) is.

I was interested to bump into some evidence that actually things are better than in the "good old days".

This came from digging a little deeper into the "Homestake Mining" gold mining company was the great depression's best performing stock.

Note this passage from Wikipedia's Homestake Mine article:

"Hearst consolidated and enlarged the Homestake property by fair and foul means. He bought out some adjacent claims, and secured others in the courts. A Hearst employee killed a man who refused to sell his claim, but was acquitted in court after all the witnesses disappeared. Hearst purchased newspapers in Deadwood to influence public opinion, and an opposing newspaper editor was beaten up on a Deadwood street. Hearst himself realized that he might be on the receiving end of violence, and wrote a letter to his partners asking them to provide for his family should he be murdered. In the end, however, Hearst was the one who walked out alive, and very rich."

I haven't heard of any corruption cases in the USA where:

• big business employees getting away with murder because of witness bribery and/or intimidation.
• opposing newspage editors getting beaten up.

I guess you'd have to call that progress. One thing is very similar to the current situation: "Hearst purchased newspapers (the media) to influence public opinion." What else can explain, for example, General Electric (GE) owning NBC?

Hope this wasn't too off-topic for you.

MontyHigh

Off Topic: What Is God Like?

I remember when I was thirteen years old my friend Kenny Moon and I  asking the question: "What is God Like?". Kenny talked about God being some kind of life-creating impersonal force or something. It was years later when I finally found a good answer to the question.

Click here for that answer.

Off Topic: Big Questions Or Big Answers?

Many people look to Jesus for answers. Perhaps you can learn something by pondering the questions Jesus asked. Here's some of those questions I've pondered:

"What does it profit someone to gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?"

"What can one give to get back his soul once he has lost it?"

"If you love those who love you, what credit do you deserve?"

"Is not life more than food and the body more than clothing?"

"Why are you afraid, you men of little faith?"

"Should you not have mercy on your fellow slave the way I have had mercy on you?"

"What do you want me to do for you?"

Off Topic?: Dr. Francis Collins, Head Of The Human Genome Project

Friday night I got a chance to hear, live, a lecture by Dr. Francis Collins, who led the Human Genome Project. He's got quite a lot to say.

For example, he spent a while discussing what kind of medical advances are coming out of the Human Genome Project. He said that the medical results from the Human Genome project are really starting to accelerate and should be seen in three waves that will allow really serious improvements to the treatment of many major diseases (cancer, diabetes, heart-disease, alzheimer's disease, etc.).

1. Diagnostic / Preventive - the results of genome analysis will allow medical services providers to provide really individualized diagnosis / preventative steps based not just on the general public but based on what risk factors you are specificly open to). This should start arriving in the next 2 years.
2. Genomic Pharmaceutical - the results of genome analysis will allow the choice of medicine and the dosage to be fine-tuned to you personally. In the past, it was hard to tell which medicines would work best with which individuals, but the ability to determine this is going advance swiftly as a result of genome-based research. This should also start arriving in the next 2 years.
3. Better Pharmaceuticals - this takes longer because of the approval process, but really significant advances (specifically for cancer, but also other diseases) are being made because of the increased understanding of what happens biochemically inside the body. These are still about a decade away.

If true, this has practical implications for all of us as either we ourselves or someone we love is likely to benefit from the results of this research in the not too distant future.

He had quite a few things to say on other very important topics that are, in my opinion, of even greater practical importance to ourselves and the ones we love. Click here if you'd like to watch a video or listen to an MP3 of a lecture that I believe covers the same ground as the one I heard Friday.

Leave me a comment on what you think about what he has to say.