Here's another look at the metal future curves. The future prices from the original "Shape Of Things To Come" are compared to current prices in the graph below.
Here's the conclusions I draw from this graph:
- Futures prices are not very accurate predictors of the future. The nickel price was, a month ago, 14% lower than the and this was not predicted by the futures curve which expected, at that time, relatively flat nickel prices. Similarly the lead (Pb) prices was, a month ago, 20% lower than the current month and the futures prices were predicting a falling price over the next three months.
- The prices are, across the board, significantly higher than a month ago with Ni and Pb leading the way.
- The shape of the curves have not changed significantly, but they have just shifted up in price.