World Of Wallstreet

Gold Takedowns: Another Day, Another Takedown?

Here's what happened today:

Following the previously enunciated system, I would have entered short at the arrow and exited 5 minutes later for a very minor loss. From there the price would continued lower for some time. The more standard trailing stop would have netted a profit.

At this point, I would probably want to change the system's entry to require a more violent takedown prior to entry.

Ma Bol Takedown - Everything on 5-minute candle closes except where noted.

• Setup - wait until gold is due for a Cartel takedown. This is a qualitative criteria. Today it was because the G8 meeting is coming up.
• Enter Short - when the price drops from comfortably above the 24-bar moving average to below the 24, 2 bollinger band in 20 minutes (4 candles) or less.
• Exit - on the close of the first green candle.
• Exit - after making at least $1.50 when half of the maximum profits are gone. 

With this set of exits, the score would be (for the cases logged under the Gold Takedowns heading):

• +1$, 7/6
• -1$ +.1$, 7/2
• -.1$ +.9$, 7/1
• +2.5$, 6/29

For a total of winning +3.4$ over 6 trades or an average winning of .57$ / trade or $228 per contract. I don't know if I'd consider this tradeable or not.

The alternative exit would be something like Exit on losing $1.50 or after making at least $1.50 and then losing half the profits (again on 5 minute candle closes).

With this set of exits the results are:

• +4$, 7/6
• +0$, -$1.5 7/2
• -1.5$, +6.5$, 7/1
• +$1.3, 6/29

For a total winning of $9.8 over 6 trades for an average of $1.63 per trade or $653 per contract. This looks better.

Again, these are just my own notes on studying gold takedowns.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Gold Takedowns: Monday Morning

We had what appears to be a takedown beginning around 2AM this morning. It was not as forceful as some. The current trading system would have made only around $1. If the exit had been a crossing of the moving average we would have made $7. Will have to consider this.

MontyHigh

Gold Takedowns: Non-Farm Payrolls

Today was the day that non-farm payrolls (monthly unemployment) numbers came out. The Cartel always (at least to my recollection) finds a way to keep gold from going up on non-farm payrolls day. Can't have herd psychology thinking gold is a safe place to be when something scary (like losing your job) comes up.

I woke up at 1:30AM today and saw gold right at that $940 resistance and went short a contract, I exited at the end of the first green 5 minute candle after the numbers came out (8:30AM).

The bollinger band strategy, adjusted to be as follows, had two opportunities to make money today. The second (with adjustments) would have more than covered the smallish loss from the first. Here's the revised strategy.

Ma Bol Takedown - Everything on 5-minute candle closes except where noted.

• Setup - wait until gold has popped above critical resistance, the kind that the cartel fights (in this case $940.
• Enter Short - when the price drops from above the 24-bar moving average to below the 24, 2 bollinger band in 25 minutes (5 candles) or less.
• Exit - on the close of the first green candle.
• Exit - after making at least $1.50 when half of the maximum profits are gone. 

Once I accumulate enough experience eyeballing these charts I will probably put my programming skills to work and methodically backtest them.

MontyHigh

Gold Takedowns: Push Below Resistance

Yesterday we had two clear rounds of take downs. The first begins at 2:25 AM (London open time) taking gold from above its resistance bollinger band to below its support bollinger bad at 3:15AM. Compared to the previous takedown we see a move from above the moving average to below the support bollinger band in 10 minutes. An entry here would have lost a little if the exit was the first green candle.


The second takedown started shortly after the New York open. We see a move from above the moving average to below the support bollinger band in 15 minutes (8:10 to 8:25). This gives a short enter at roughly 939 with an exit on the first green candle of 935.50 for a $3.50 gain. The take down resumes with a clearly lower low of around 931 at 10:10. I don't know how to trade these second pushes down.

So, our tentative take trading system is as follows:

Ma Bol Takedown - Everything on 5-minute candle closes.

• Setup - wait until gold has popped above critical resistance, the kind that the cartel fights (in this case $940.
• Enter Short - when the price drops from above the 24-bar moving average to below the 24, 2 bollinger band in 15 minutes (3 candles) or less.
• Exit - on the close of the first green candle.

I'll be watching this to see if it "works".

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Gold Takedown: Push Below Resistance

I'm going to start recording screen captures of gold "takedowns" on this blog. A "takedown" is a sudden move down that seems to be attributable to the gold cartel. I'll be keeping them for my own record to see if anything is tradeable. I don't know whether useful trading patterns will be found. I would prefer to find trading patterns which fight the cartel by going long, but I'll take what I can get.

Takedown presumed reason: Its monday and time to push gold below $940 support / resistance. Unemployment coming out this week (on Thursday).

Enter Short: 24 bar moving average crossing that crosses or touches the lower bollinger band.
Exit: First green bar.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us