Here's what happened today:
Following the previously enunciated system, I would have entered short at the arrow and exited 5 minutes later for a very minor loss. From there the price would continued lower for some time. The more standard trailing stop would have netted a profit.
At this point, I would probably want to change the system's entry to require a more violent takedown prior to entry.
Ma Bol Takedown - Everything on 5-minute candle closes except where noted.
- Setup - wait until gold is due for a Cartel takedown. This is a qualitative criteria. Today it was because the G8 meeting is coming up.
- Enter Short - when the price drops from comfortably above the 24-bar moving average to below the 24, 2 bollinger band in 20 minutes (4 candles) or less.
- Exit - on the close of the first green candle.
- Exit - after making at least $1.50 when half of the maximum profits are gone.
With this set of exits, the score would be (for the cases logged under the Gold Takedowns heading):
- +1$, 7/6
- -1$ +.1$, 7/2
- -.1$ +.9$, 7/1
- +2.5$, 6/29
For a total of winning +3.4$ over 6 trades or an average winning of .57$ / trade or $228 per contract. I don't know if I'd consider this tradeable or not.
The alternative exit would be something like Exit on losing $1.50 or after making at least $1.50 and then losing half the profits (again on 5 minute candle closes).
With this set of exits the results are:
- +4$, 7/6
- +0$, -$1.5 7/2
- -1.5$, +6.5$, 7/1
- +$1.3, 6/29
For a total winning of $9.8 over 6 trades for an average of $1.63 per trade or $653 per contract. This looks better.
Again, these are just my own notes on studying gold takedowns.