World Of Wallstreet

Best Of The Boards: Cold July In The USA, Warm Globally

Ok, I'm a global warming sceptic, but I want the truth and I'm more eager to see data that contradicts my view than which confirms it. The link below is to a message board post in a thread on Sunspots and possible global cooling. I had been presuming that the absence of Sunspots and an obviously cooler than usual Maryland (USA) summer meant that the recent cooling trend was accelerating. The data in the post says otherwise.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=35523&pt=msg&mid=7777063

I consider this on-topic as it does affect investing as various commodity-based investing do depend on climate (natural gas consumption, agriculture, etc.).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Falling Rig Counts And Natural Gas Production

This article (click here) explains pretty well why you can't look at falling rig counts and assume there's going to be a natural gas shortage. I'm not in natural gas stocks right now, but if I was I'd be looking for low-cost producers with stockholder-friendly management (not CHK).

MontyHigh

International Energy Agency Official "fesses" Up... Peak Oil

    This article is among the most important I've read in months.

    If you haven't heard the "Peak Oil" story it goes something like this:
    o There is finite amount of oil under the ground.
    o Oil is unique and there are no reasonably priced alternatives especially as a source of transportation fuel (gasoline and diesel).
    o Based various different modeling techniques, the amount of oil that can be produced annually is going to peak soon (e.g. ranging from already to 5 years).
    o And yet even with current high prices demand continues to grow about 2%/year.
    o The result will be stunningly high gasoline prices at best, but a major disruption to the world economy is also reasonably likely.

    This idea of Peak Oil has been gaining traction since the mid 90s, starting with retired, senior geologists from major oil companies. The International Energy Agency (run by oil consuming countries) has been consistently dismissive of the idea (going from Peak Oil is hundreds of years away to decades away to still at least 15 years away). The IEA has a vested interested in dismissing the idea because they are in charge of persuading oil producing countries to sell their oil as cheaply as possible.

    In this interview, an IEA official:
(a) Admits peak oil is coming in the next 5 to 10 years (YIKES!!!)
(b) Puts doubts on Saudi reserve numbers  (YIKES!!!)
(c) Say his peak oil estimates assume Iraq oil production exponentially starts growing (YIKES!!!)
(d) Says bio fuels are a crock  (YIKES!!!) so there are no reasonably priced alternatives coming.

    This is a major change.

    I'm currently "all in" on base metal stocks, but long-term crude oil futures (or selected oil stocks with big reserves in politically safe places) are starting to look very tempting.