World Of Wallstreet

Possible Global Game-Changer: Cold Fusion Is Not Just For Bozos Anymore

"Cold Fusion" (aka Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, LENR) is not just for bozos anymore.

Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center is not a bozo. I particularly found this quote amusing (emphasis added): "several labs have blown up studying LENR and windows have melted, indicating when the conditions are "right" prodigious amounts of energy can be produced and released."

The European Commission is not the home of bozos (start with page 23). Here's the money quote (emphasis added): "ENEA, SRI and NRL have been involved within review programs in the US and in Italy. The main task was to demonstrate, on the basis of signals well above the measurement uncertainties and with a cross check, the existence of the excess of heat production during electrochemical loading of deuterium in palladium cathodes. The target was achieved and the existence of the effect is no longer in doubt.".

If you want to spin up on the latest (with a positive spin), I'd spend 10 minutes on this:

The conspiracy side of me was amused by this bullet:

In general, let me know what you think about this, especially if you know of any good recent "sceptics" posts.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Natural Gas Competitive With Coal For Power Generation This Summer

As always, Gregor brings some meaningful data:

I think (and the futures strip agrees) that the North American Natural Gas price fall has overshot. With $3.xx to $4.xx on the futures strip beginning January 2013. Know any appalachian coal producers who sell at spot price? They might be vulnerable this summer.

For me, the long-term question is how much crude oil (diesel/gasoline) consumption can cheap North American natural gas displace as Peak Oil kicks in.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Best Of The Boards: Cold July In The USA, Warm Globally

Ok, I'm a global warming sceptic, but I want the truth and I'm more eager to see data that contradicts my view than which confirms it. The link below is to a message board post in a thread on Sunspots and possible global cooling. I had been presuming that the absence of Sunspots and an obviously cooler than usual Maryland (USA) summer meant that the recent cooling trend was accelerating. The data in the post says otherwise.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=35523&pt=msg&mid=7777063

I consider this on-topic as it does affect investing as various commodity-based investing do depend on climate (natural gas consumption, agriculture, etc.).

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Falling Rig Counts And Natural Gas Production

This article (click here) explains pretty well why you can't look at falling rig counts and assume there's going to be a natural gas shortage. I'm not in natural gas stocks right now, but if I was I'd be looking for low-cost producers with stockholder-friendly management (not CHK).

MontyHigh

International Energy Agency Official "fesses" Up... Peak Oil

    This article is among the most important I've read in months.

    If you haven't heard the "Peak Oil" story it goes something like this:
    o There is finite amount of oil under the ground.
    o Oil is unique and there are no reasonably priced alternatives especially as a source of transportation fuel (gasoline and diesel).
    o Based various different modeling techniques, the amount of oil that can be produced annually is going to peak soon (e.g. ranging from already to 5 years).
    o And yet even with current high prices demand continues to grow about 2%/year.
    o The result will be stunningly high gasoline prices at best, but a major disruption to the world economy is also reasonably likely.

    This idea of Peak Oil has been gaining traction since the mid 90s, starting with retired, senior geologists from major oil companies. The International Energy Agency (run by oil consuming countries) has been consistently dismissive of the idea (going from Peak Oil is hundreds of years away to decades away to still at least 15 years away). The IEA has a vested interested in dismissing the idea because they are in charge of persuading oil producing countries to sell their oil as cheaply as possible.

    In this interview, an IEA official:
(a) Admits peak oil is coming in the next 5 to 10 years (YIKES!!!)
(b) Puts doubts on Saudi reserve numbers  (YIKES!!!)
(c) Say his peak oil estimates assume Iraq oil production exponentially starts growing (YIKES!!!)
(d) Says bio fuels are a crock  (YIKES!!!) so there are no reasonably priced alternatives coming.

    This is a major change.

    I'm currently "all in" on base metal stocks, but long-term crude oil futures (or selected oil stocks with big reserves in politically safe places) are starting to look very tempting.