World Of Wallstreet

Best Of The Boards: Comment On The LME Failure To Deliver Gold

I guess you've heard about this juicy story regarding counter parties to a gold futures delivery not having the gold to deliver (click here): 

Here's a nice pair of comments from my favorite precious metals board (click here for the whole thread):

RE: LME asking 2 big gold longs to take cash (25 % over) rather than physical

"If I was squeezing the big boys I'd take the money, find someplace to hide and hope that I was still alive in a year."

I agree. I read a recent book review re: memoirs of Heinrich Mueller, only Gestapo leader never found. Purported to have been hired by the U.S. to help create the CIA after WWII. He reportedly had his own personal assassin. Six snoopy journalists asking too many questions met their maker in this way.

Hope you enjoyed this whole story with the comments. I know I did. Can't claim I believe it, but I enjoyed it. I love the layering of conspiracy story on top of conspiracy story.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Best Of The Boards: Kilowatt8 On Auditing The Federal Reserve

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=144&mn=30855&pt=msg&mid=7960901

"Yup.  I think that was probably the most despicable and blatant hold up in history. But under the shield of presumed legitimacy, they are lionized for it.  It went something like this didn't it:

 

You must give us trillions immediately, no questions asked, or we'll all be reduced to hunter gatherers by tomorrow morning!!  We have no time to explain!

 

OMG, that sounds horrible, here take this blank check for other peoples money.  Gee, I've never been more frightened.

 

Later -

 

Umm, what did you guys actually do with that money?  

 

Umm, it wouldn't be wise for us to tell you that.  It might compromise the integrity of the system."

Best Of The Boards: China Like GM?

Here's a comment with an unexpected thought in it (from quite a high-quality post board, click here):

"China builds stuff and we consume it. At least, that has been the case up until now. We can't really afford the stuff they sell to us so they must lend us the money to buy it. (I think there is a parallel in the GM story where car buyers couldn't afford GM's product unless they offered financing incentives. Where did that lead? Who went bankrupt and who just changed car brands?)"

What do you think?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Best Of The Boards: "The Really Good News..."

"The really good news is that Mother Theresa is no deader today than she was yesterday, which, of course, means she’s doing better than expected."

From a comment on a www.ritholtz.com post about today's GDP number.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Best Of The Boards: Time To Buy A House Yet?

You might want to forward this to anyone you know and care about who might be thinking about it.

Bottom line: Not yet, not even close. Don't even think about it.

Quite a good thread about the real estate market:
http://investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=2234&pm=175721&nm=175760&sync=1&tid=6538157&showall=1

By the way, contrast the truthfulness / relevance of this to what you might see in the newspapers or on TV and you'll understand why the mainstream media ratings are collapsing. The amateurs are clearly delivering better coverage than the mainstream.

MontyHigh...............

Best Of The Boards: What Is Under An Argentine Mattress

Argentina Report

 

I talked w my son in Bariloche (Patagonia).  He owns a successful bar / restaurant. He stated;

 

 

Argentines, who used to hedge the pesos by getting dollars and putting them under the mattress, are buying gold.  Shops sold out in BA.  Big demand.   Biz media reports buying gold is a new phenomena for Argentines.  (They always used the dollar before.)

 

 

2nd pt. - Rich Argentines are bringing their $ money home from US and buying RE in Argentina.  Luxury condos prices in BA have rocketed in past 2 weeks but they are buying anything - lots, farmland, houses.

 

Media saying US is "Argentinizing". There was an article with that title in a major biz paper yesterday.  I will try to pull it up later.  Wife has the paper in her suitcase now...lol

 

nochicasgordas

Best Of The Boards: Bretton_Woods on Gold To Oil Price Ratio

Click here for a posting on my favorite precious metal mining board, Investor Village's Precious Metals.

Bretton_Woods describes (with amply annotated charts) his gold to oil ratio-based timing system.

Quite impressive.

MontyHigh

Best Of The Boards: Metanor Valuation

As you may recall, on Feb 3'ird I profiled PurePaloma's Metanor mining as a fat pitch. MTO's stock ran just as expected and is now consolidating around $1.00. There is still a lot to like about this stock and Monday may be a good entry point.

The following post provides a simple, straightforward valuation of MTO. Seems pretty attractive provided they execute their plan.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=23067685&l=0&r=0&s=MTO&t=LIST

By the way, here's (http://miningmarketwatch.net/flashmto400.htm )a really nice overview showing what they have in production step by step from blasting at the pit mine to pouring the gold dore.

I've got a tonne of things to write about, but am on vacation in Austin Tx and don't know how much I can post. I'll probably get a few things in later this afternoon.

MontyHigh

Best Of The Boards: Luckydawg Analyzes Citicorp Analyst

Pretty funny. Here's a Citicorp analyst on the outlook for commodities (click here for the original, Q? Is he stupid or talking his book or what?):
"Commodity `Bubble' Poised to Burst, Citigroup's Levkovich Says

By Millie Munshi

     March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.'s chief U.S. equity strategist, said a commodity ``bubble'' is poised to burst, increasing the risk of investing in mining and agricultural companies.    

``A number of catalysts may be coming together to end the current commodities craze,'' Levkovich wrote in a report. ``The risk spills out to agricultural, mining machinery and energy equipment and services.''    

Prices for commodities, which rose to records this year, are poised to drop as demand fueled by speculators dissipates and global growth slows, Levkovich said in a March 20 note sent today by e-mail. The decline will put investments in a number of related industries at risk, he said.    

Raw-materials futures tumbled the most in more than 50 years last week as investor demand fell. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities lost 8.3 percent, marking the steepest drop since at least 1956. Slowing global economic growth signals commodity demand will soften, the International Monetary Fund said last week....

``The idea of bubbles bursting is well known,'' Levkovich said. ``A whole range of stocks seem to be at risk.''    

Higher prices for gold, copper, corn and crude oil increased shares of commodity producers and related companies as profits surged. Since March 17, gold fell 8.2 percent before today, while oil declined 3.6 percent.... 
    

``We fully appreciate the China and India economic growth opportunities, but we wonder if people are taking it too far,'' Levkovich said. ``The investment theses surrounding commodities looks poised to be tested very meaningfully and we would prefer to avoid many of the affected stock areas.''    

"

Here's Investor Village's LuckyDawg's analysis of the outlook.
" Citigroup `Bubble' Poised to Burst, IV's Luckydawg Says 

     March 24 (IV) -- Luckydawg, an Investor Village poster with interests in energy and metals, said a financial ``bubble'' is poised to burst, increasing the risk of investing in companies such as Citigroup.    

``A number of catalysts are coming together to end the current leverage craze,'' Luckydawg wrote in a post. ``The risk spills out from real estate to insurance, capital, savings, and brokerage concerns.''    

Prices for crap, which rose to records this year, are poised to drop even further as demand fueled by speculators dissipates and nobody is left to buy, Luckydawg said in a March 24 post on the IV website. The decline will put investments in a number of related industries at risk, he said.    

Highly leveraged debt "products" marketed by such firms as Citigroup tumbled the most in more than 50 years in recent weeks as investor demand fell, marking the steepest drop since at least 1956. Growing global apprehension signals demand will soften even more, Luckydawg predicted.    

``The idea of bubbles bursting is well known,'' Luckydawg said. ``A whole range of stocks seem to be at risk.''    

Higher prices for gold, copper, corn and crude oil increased shares of commodity producers and related companies as profits surged, Luckydawg noted.

``We fully appreciate the China and India economic growth opportunities, and we think people are taking it too far bailing out of real assets for these house-of-cards financial 'products','' Luckydawg said. ``The investment theses surrounding them looks poised to be tested very meaningfully and we would prefer to avoid many of the affected stock areas.''

"This doesn't even address all the pathetic solicitations to accept a Citibank credit card that I have returned marked "REMOVE" in their postage-paid envelopes, said Luckydawg. "These guys are desperate."

"

Best Of The Boards: I Want To Be Like Rodv...

when I grow up. This kind of sophistication that comes from an in depth fundamental understanding of the energy market and ends up providing opportunities for low risk 20% gains is where I want to be some day. Right now I'm just finding the best opportunities for significant gains in undervalued stocks regardless of the risk from sector concentration and living with the outrageous volatility.

Monty

Here's Rodv's post from earlier this week:
" Re: OIL up >10% YTD, OIL Producers down >5% YTD

 

Undoubtedly past profits have increased for many companies.  But that doesn't necessarily mean earnings will continue to grow for all in the sector.  Crude oil may well correct but not for long.  A particular E & P might with a few mistakes might not recover.  I'm not saying we should be out of the E & P's.  I'm in them heavily.  But oil itself will go up - even when the government moves to curb prices which it will.  The exporters, however, will not sell their oil for less just to please the U.S. Government. 

 

Surely there are risks in all these investments.  Oil bought with leverage on the futures market should be well capitalized otherwise squeezes could develop.  Options for far contract oil are now very difficult to buy at any price.

I was unable to even get a quote yesterday.  Noone wants the otherside of CL Dec 12-15.

 

There are so many good option plays right now on the stocks that I have difficulty restraining myself.  But I insist on cash cover.  But 20% (annual)  returns are plentiful with no movement in the underlying stock.  A couple of examples.

 

PBR Jul 110 put -  $11.20  24%

 

SU  Sep 105 put - $10.80  19%

 

UPL Jun 75 put - $6.00     27.4%

 

Just some thoughts

 

Regards

"

Best Of The Boards: Perfectly Objective Journalism

From CRDNLAU on the InvestorVillage RNO board (note: TOUT TV is CNBC):
" The financial media such as TOUT TV have one object and one object only. Keep the producer employed. If they say the market is going to a very warm place (not warmcamp) in a handbasket you will sell everything. If you sell everything you won't watch. If you don't watch the ratings will drop. If the ratings drop the producer will get fired. If he/she gets fired so will they. Therefore whatever they say it is to keep you invested and hence watching. Then the producer keeps his/her job and they keep theirs. It is all perfectly objective. The objective is not to have to go home and tell the spouse/boyfriend/girlfriend or all of them that you got canned.
crdnlau
"