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January 29, 2012

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MontyHigh

Well, like I said how you play it depends on your personal situation. I see that you are attempting rapid wealth appreciation via Jr precious metal mining stocks. Ok.

If that's the way you're going to play it then you have to pick really good Jrs (with no kidding wealth in the ground on a risk/reward basis) and either BE RIGHT and HOLD TIGHT no matter what OR be able to tell when the big one is coming and take a significant loss and dump the stocks. Depending on how much you have, a false alarm where you dump and buy back is going to cost you 10 or 20%.

I've seen two significant data points:
(a) Fall of 2008, Jr mining stocks got creamed (80% hits not unusual), but if you had the guts to hold for a year I think you were all right. I held tight and did quite nicely but I went from being a newly rich man to a middle class guy and back to a somewhat richer man and I don't want to do that again.
(b) Fall of 2011, Jr mining stocks took another painful hit (30%ish hits) and now are pretty much ok.

Next time we have a systemic threat, I expect another flight to safety and Jr miners (especially those that need financing) will get creamed again. Why should it be any different from the previous two data points?

So, how are you going to play it? By the way, my favorite Jr Mining stock picker is Otto Rock, Inca Kola News (IKN). You know anybody who is as good? I don't have time right now to play that game myself.

MontyHigh

Wim

Hello Monty,

Thanks for your answer. It is well appreciated.

I am a little confused because Jesse Livermore(great investor) always said:

"the big money is made by man who can both be right and sit tight, my thinking(in and out trading) never made the big money for me."

Thats why I am sitting in my junior gold and silver stocks(i am sitting right) from the year 2009 till now.

I am right and now is the question if i will be sitting tight through these volatile years 2012, 2013, 2014, therefore my question to you.


Kind regards, Wim


MontyHigh

Thanks for leaving a comment Wim. I just don't know whether a crash occurs in the next two years. I'm pretty much with Catherine Austin Fitts thinking that the Powers-That-Be are planning on a "slow-burn" where stagflation (with plenty of austerity) transfers middle-class wealth to the Powers-That-Be. They could make a mistake like they did with Lehman, but I don't know.

How you decide to play it depends on a lot of factors. Except for a core position in GORO, I'm not leaving money in any mining stock beyond what I can pull out in a single day taking a 5-10% hit from my selling or that I'm willing to have "go to zero". This limits my Jr mining exposure.

If you have adequate savings and are mainly focused on gradual wealth increase (say 20% a year real wealth increase) I'd get a subscription to Stewart Thomson's Graceland Updates. He's got quite a good approach for making it thru the upheavals that are coming.

Feel free to continue the discussion if you find this helpful.

MontyHigh

Wim

Hello Monty,

I have another question for you.

It seems clear that with all this money printing in the Western World that a crash such as the Lehman Brothers in 2008 seems likely within 2 years(in 2013 or 2014).

Is it then wise to sell your gold and silver stocks in the strength of the stockmarket in 2012(election year, this year) and then buy these stocks later cheaper after the crash in 2013 or 2014 or do you believe that the gold and silver stocks will not crash during the coming crash?

I would like your answer.

Kind Regards, Wim

agsigo

The gold for oil trade has been denied in the Indian media but alternatives like trade in rupees and a barter system like exports of other goods from India being done in exchange for oil. But the hitch here is the value of oil exports is far greater than imports from India. The challenge remains in bridging this deficit.

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