World Of Wallstreet

Gold Interventionals Coming Up For This Week

To complete my analysis of the current gold tradiing situation this post examines this weeks interventionals which are as follows:

• Monday - COMEX margin rates increase. Could provide the impetus for another down day for gold. 
• Monday - S&P 500 is threatening to breakdown thru support (see chart below). THEY want to keep this from happening. I expect a little risk-on trade action, positive for gold, thruout this week as THEY support the S&P 500. 
• Tuesday - Gold Options expiration. Given the way they've crashed gold I don't think they need to hurt gold further to force call options to expire out of the money. See the study of this below. 
• Wednesday - Durable Goods, should show continued slide further into recession, but not enough to cause intervention. P.S., Ordinarily I love to go long gold at the end of the day after options expiration. My look at the last almost three years of options expirations action gives no reason for this Wed close not to be a good entry point for gold. 
• Wednesday - 5 Year Treasury Auction - could be a hit for gold as they don't want any treasury bond competition looking good.
• Thursday - 7 Year Treasury Auction - could be a hit for gold as they don't want any treasury bond competition looking good.
• No interventionals next week until the unemployment report on Friday.  

Ok, so the margin increase (Monday) and options expiration (Tuesday) are the big interventionals for this week. I expect by the close of Wed gold should be released to start a significant recovery (see previous post). Maybe Thursday's Treasury auction will postpone that one day. We'll see. Am I missing something?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Simultaneous Gold And S&P500 Stocks Hard Drops

I continue my analysis of the current gold situation with a look at previous cases where the price of gold and the general US stocks (as measured by the S&P500) drop "hard" as they did this week.

The above chart (thru the magic of GIMP, the "free" photoshop program) provides a simultaneous 10 year view of the S&P 500 5-day rate of change and the price of gold 5 day rate of change. Thin red lines near the bottom identify those occasions where gold fell more than 7% in five trading days while simultaneously (or nearly simultaneously) the stock market fell by at least 5%. There are five such occasions: Mar 07, Sep 08, Oct 08, Mar 09 and Sep 11.

Here's gold's current situation:

First gold was a safe-haven (rising while the general stock market fell), but then we had (just this week) a double-drop where both stocks and gold fell hard. The gold silver ratio pops up as gold and stocks plunge. What comes after this plunge is yet to be revealed.

In march of 2007 gold was rising with the stock market, but the stock market started falling before gold. Gold and stocks plunged together for five days with a gold silver ratio pop and then gold and the stocks recovered with both reaching levels that exceeded the start of the double-drop. Nice.

In September of 2008 gold had been falling for a while but recovered a little as stocks faded. The last few days are a lot like Mar 2007. The double drop lasted 7 days accompanied by a gold/silver ratio pop. A stiff gold recover ensued (easily topping the start of the double-drop) while the stock market continued to plunge.

In October of 2008 (scary days), after the recovery from September completed (again gold rising, stocks falling), the double-drop commenced upon a stock market recovery failing. The gold/silver ratio popped during the double drop. After about three weeks of bottoming, gold started a nice rise, exceeding its price before the double-drop about 8 weeks later. The stock market during this period bottomed and recovered a bit.

In March of 2009 (the end of the 2008 financial panic), gold was rising while the stock market was tanking when the double-drop began accompanied by a gold/silver ratio jump. The ensuing recovery in stocks was quite impressive, but gold did not immediately achieve pre-double-drop levels.

So, the pattern we generally see associated with double-drops (where gold and the S&P 500 drop hard) is:

1. Gold rises while the stock market starts falling.
2. The stock market falls hard and gold goes with it. Trader Dan is probably right (click here) about why this occurs: Leveraged Hedge funds are selling gold, either to protect year-to-date profits or to avoid margin calls on other leveraged positions (stocks and commodities).
3. Once those hedgies have sold there are no more sellers and the strong hand buyers of gold step in. Gold has a nice rise immediately thereafter up beyond where it was when the double-drop started. The only time that gold did not recover that level (but did recover significantly) was at the very end of the big financial scare (Mar 09). I don't think we are at the end of the current financial scare, do you?

This result is quite different from what I expected (and quite different from what I concluded in my previous post). The fundamental explanation seems sound and more of a match for the current circumstance than that of the previous post. This leaves me unexpectedly bullish. I'm expecting that I'll hold my options at least until the start of the current double-drop is achieved (around $1800). If this works out I'll get quite a bit of fiat back.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

A Study Of Gold Bull Market Corrections Through The 50 Day Moving Average

This post is the first in a series capturing my analysis of the gold market situation as I complete chunks of analysis. The planned posts at this point are:

1. This current post.
2. A post studying situations where gold fell hard at the same time as the stock market falling hard (as happened this week).
3. A look at this week's interventionals.

Having been out sick this week and not trading very well I find I'm still leveraged long gold and need to figure out what the probability is of upward price action.

The next three graphs show, for the present gold bull market, those cases where a bull market high is followed by a correction that pierces the 50 day moving average. I've put these corrections under the microscope and to see if they can help me decide what to do about my now deeply out of the money $1800 Dec 2011 call options.

If you are holding or considering buying gold this article may provide some insight one what to expect thru the end of the year.

Minor point: I'm using daily closing prices for all this analysis.

Since the start of the bull run there has been 14 cases (including the current one) of a 50 day moving average breakdown after a bull market high. This current case is already one of the larger ones. I expect I'll be adding columns to this table as my analysis proceeds.

The current correction is already a big one from a percentage standpoint (column C). Still the following data from the table indicates the correction probably still has further to go:

• 7 of 13 of the previous corrections lasted longer than this one has already (column C)
• All four of the corrections most like the current one (rows 3, 9, 10 and 11) went longer than the current prior to finding a bottom.
• 11 of 13 penetrated the 100 day moving average and 6 of 13 penetrated the 200 day moving average while this correction has yet to penetrate the 100 day moving average (with a daily close).
• All four of the corrections most like the current one penetrated the 100 day moving average and 3 or 4 the 200 day.
• The RSI appears to have a bit further to fall prior to the bottom being reached.

The current correction has the situation where it hit a top, bounced around for a month and then had a seemingly vertical drop of around. The table that follows adds columns regarding the first major vertical drop (consecutive down days) for the earlier corrections.

The first thing I notice is that this correction's first big vertical drop (with a jump in the gold/silver ratio) started it started a full 20 days after previous bull run high. I'm not sure what to make of this. It means this correction may be different from earlier corrections.

I also notice that a 3-day duration for a vertical drop is close to average, although one more day would make it average. The size of the vertical drop is close to the largest earlier vertical drops (which I call the most similar to the current correction, rows 3, 9, 10 and 11). This means that this vertical drop is probably ended (or will end Monday). Those most similar corrections last a day longer than the current correction which implies that this correction's vertical drop has a bit further to go.

But the most important thing to notice is that only 3 of 13 corrections hit their lows with the end of the first vertical drop. 4 of 4 vertical drops greater than 7% ended up putting in a lower lower. This means I probably want to trade around this expected further decline if possible. An average further drop of 4.8% moves the price of gold down to 1582 (coincidentally, or not, matching up pretty closely to Jim Sinclair's lowest support number).

Another thing to note is that of the four corrections with vertical drops > 7%, all had bounces at the end of the vertial drop and two of them were substantial (1.4%, 3.4%, 4.0%, .7%). So if the vertical drop has completed, waiting for a bounce to exit makes some sense.

The main hopeful thing I see from this vertical drop data is the RSI reading at the end of the vertical drop. The current correction's RSI has achieved a lower level at the end of the current vertical drop than previous such corrections (rows 3, 9, 10, 11) and is closing in on what could be the ultimate low for this correction.

Now, my options are going to expire around Thankgiving which 9 weeks away. Most of them are now way out of the money. I don't want to hold options in the final week. So, I need a big price recovery in the next 8 weeks to avoid having them "go to zero". So, let's see how the price changed from the end of the vertical drop to 8 weeks afterwards in these prior corrections (column Q).

Yikes that looks bad. Even though there's lots of scary things out there (Europe, Falling Commodities And Stock Prices Signaling Recession, China Slowdown, etc.) the outlook from this table is neutral for the next 8 weeks. Looking at the most similar corrections (rows 3, 9, 10, 11) indicates that we shouldn't really expect an up move over the next 8 weeks. 

My options need a big price bounce back if they are not going to expire worthless. Column Q says not to expect that. The overall conclusion of the study so far is that gold seems to be just about due for a bounce, but after that it can be expected to decline further without much improvement from now until Thanksgiving. I don't like that message, but that's what this data indicates.

Lessons to be learned: If I'd been watching and analyzing more closely, I think I would have (probably) dumped my options as soon as $1800 was breached (and definitely after the 50 day crossing). This is a case where my own internal psychology has caused me to hold onto positions after they should have been dumped thereby ramping up my losses. One excuse is that I had a cold all this week. Perhaps one should tighten their stops (or just dump all leveraged positions) when their health isn't 100%. Live and learn.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us Download 20110924gc50downcrosses

 

A Look Ahead To Year End: That Debt Ceiling Super Committee Thing's Timetable...

Here's a link to a newspaper article covering the Debt Ceiling supercommittee timetable. Looks like things start really getting hot around Thanksgiving. For me, the rich part is that even if they don't agree on cuts the automatic cuts don't start until Jan 2013 (after the election). I guess that's why they call them "politicians". 

Here's some highlights from the article:

Nov. 23: Deadline for the committee to vote on a plan with $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction.

Dec. 2: Deadline for the committee to submit report and legislative language to the president and Congress.

Dec. 23: Deadline for both houses to vote on the committee bill.

Jan. 15, 2012: Date that the "trigger" leading to $1.2 trillion of future spending cuts goes into effect, if the committee's legislation has not been enacted.

If you are trading you may want to keep this timetable in mind.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid: Seen This Movie Before?

Seen this chart before?

 30-year treasury yield says its the 2008 crash, all over again [or something worse]. Beats me if it really is, but this is an indicator that something crazy is going on. Hold on tight, because some crazy stuff is happening.

Right now I'm quite heavily leveraged long gold with call options. If support breaks I'll be taking a big loss and running for cover. I'm expecting that at least part of that European flight to safety goes into gold.

On the other hand, my recent post on this chart (click here), says that once that 30 year yield has truly bottomed that an opportunity to go long the general stock market is at hand. I'm waiting for that signal.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Change In The Gold Price 24 Hour Cycle

Its pretty painful being leveraged and wrong (having the underlying go against you). That's been my condition. 

I've been watching this 24-hour chart for a few years and I find that:

• The same moves tend to repeat, day after day.
• But each day the move tends to start a little earlier.
• The fact that today we didn't get another repeat means the consistent downward action of the last two days may be concluding. 

Gold corrections have been less deep than the charts suggest and the 50 day moving average is close to where we got last night. I expect I'll stay leveraged long a while longer. The seasonals are quite good for this time of year and I'm playing with the casino's money. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Current Gold Price Action: Anybody Seen This Before?

Here's the current gold daily chart:

I was wondering if the markets have resembled this during the current gold bull market? A chart pattern that has the following:

• Gold steeply rises and then stops.
• And enters a triangle kind of consolidation.
• While the general stock market has topped and then tanks. 
• Where the Gold RSI was overbought for a couple of months but gets down near 50 during the consolidation.

So far, the closest thing I've found is the end of 2007 (which was when all the crazy financial stuff was first really getting going). Fundamentally and sentiment wise the current situation seems similar only this time the fear is over Europe sovereign debt while last time is was the housing / subprime debt dragging the big banks down. 

 
Here's what happened in 2007/early 2008 after gold topped mid-november:

• Eight weeks prior to gold hitting a higher high after the end of the steep rise - that would be around 10/20/2011 if the pattern repeats.
• With higher lows and lower highs until then.
• Followed by a steep price rise for about 10 weeks that moves gold up 32% from the low of the correction. That would be around the end of the year and with a gold price of around $2360.
• With the general stock market popping up hard prior to falling to lower lows.

I think this parallel has some merit and its my best guess for what is going to happen next. I expect I'll be holding my options until the pattern changes from the 2007 pattern (current gold low is taken out, consolidation stretches out too long, etc.).

Its a little funny that everyone thinks the current situation is a repeat of the fall of 2008 when it looks to me like its really more like a repeat of the end of 2007!

Are there any other close parallels I'm missing?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Trading The Gary Biiwii's Most-Valuable Chart

Of all the news letters I receive, Gary Biiwii's is the one I really look forward to every week. I would characterize Biiwii's method as using technical analysis (especially ratio charts) to make macroeconomic assessments and then to invest in individual stocks according.

The following chart of his I consider to be worth, by itself, the subscription price since I started subscribing a couple of years ago. The chart shows the long-term US interest rate trend. While remaining below the moving average the trend is intact. When interest rates approach that EMA the powers-that-be have to put a scare into the stock market to avoid an inflation break-out. When interest rates fall well below that EMA the powers-that-be are free to "juice the system" with money printing. 

Right now we seem to be getting to the point where they are "free to juice". UPDATE: should have said "where have to juice the system to prevent a deflationary collapse". This is pretty remarkable given that at the beginning of this year it was looking like this multi-decade trend was about to change. Let's analyze what happens when conditions are favorable for juicing and see if we can come up with a nice multi-month general US stock market trading system.

The above chart, using a 25% envelope around the 100 month EMA identifies the nine previous occasions where the 30 year interest rate fell a comparable distance from the EMA as the current situation. All of them, except the 1995 case, seem to have occurred during scary economic times.

By far, the worst (furthest from the EMA) was the 2008 global financial crisis. To my eye, the second worst was the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The 1993 recession and 2003 jobless recovery also seemed bad. The others were barely touches of the lower envelope. We can't tell about the current situation, but it looks like its going to be one of those "bad" ones and could be the worst yet. What comes next is going to be really interesting. 

Up until now at least, all of these situations came to an end and things eventually got better than they were at their worst point. So, the questions at this point (now that we are in a such a situation) are:

• How can we determine where the bottom of the situation is? and
• How shall we trade the bounce off the situation bottom low.

Now let's try out a simple trading system based on the idea that when 30-year treasury rates get below that envelope things are really scary and the stock market is near a bottom. The trading system is:

1. Wait until the bottom envelope is touched or pierced - that is until Investors are quite scared and have done a flight to safety. This criteria has been satisfied by the current situation.
   
2. Enter (go long) the SPX (what investors have run away from as too risky) at the close of the first white candle thereafter - that is, after the worst of the fear is over and money has started leaving 30-year treasuries. It could take a few months for this to occur. The longest previous time from the (1) to (2) was for the 1993 panic which was four months. 1998 and 2009 took three months. In the current situation we just satisfied (1) this month (which is just beginning) and now we are waiting to see how big and bad and long this current situation is. I think its a big one and that we are looking at an end of November entrance, but that's just a guess.
3. Exit at the close of two successive red candles - that is, after the relief is over and when fear is starting up again. This takes at least two months (two red candles) but was 28, 29 and 14 months for the three biggest events.

The results this trading system can be seen below. I like the high winning percentage and the fact that the biggest percentage winners were associated with the most drastic events. I'm not real happy with the "Max Loss Before Exit" column. Some of these drawdowns are quite big relative to the trade's ultimate gain. I expect I'll be studying this a lot more closely as the current situation unfolds and will probably put some kind of trade of this type on when conditions seem favorable.

What do you think? Is this current situation going to be a big one? How will you determine when the bottom is in?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Here's the spreadsheet: Download 20110910biiwii30yrtlt

Gold Trading: Just Bought Back In, Sort Of

I just bought back in, only this time I bought at the money Dec calls ($1800) and didn't buy any gold mining calls while yesterday I sold an equal amount of $1600 calls. So, I have:

• a lot less at risk (less than 1/3), [The amount at risk is less than recent profits]
• but am controlling the same number of oz of gold
• but the price of gold has to run to more than $1900 (5.5%) before option expiration in order for me to break even. These options may go to zero, but that is the limit to this trade's risk and one I can accept.

The options are rather expensive, in my view, which means that smart money (seller of options) does not really believe this current take-down is going to last. I agree with them.

The reason I bought now, rather than waiting is as follows:

• Last time gold bounced sooner than I expected.
• Gold is in day 2 of the correction and corrections have lasted little more than a 2 days (see chart below). 
• Gold is at round number support which provided support last time.

I expect I'll buy some more on Friday as I originally intended to do thereby raising my overall leverage to the price of gold from where it was a week ago.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Trading Fear

Yesterday's exit was a lucky move, but it was based on my experience watching the markets (especially the precious metals markets) very closely for the last few years. Holding thru the actual news event that was generating the fear rarely seems to work out for gold.

There has been growing fear in Europe for days and it became centered on the question: What happens if the German supreme court rules against ECB bailouts? This is a classic setup: Growing fear centered on a future, fixed-point in time event, especially an event where the question is: Can they kick the can down the road again? The debt ceiling was another such event. The answer, so far, has always been:  Yes, they can.

The way to trade fear seems to be:

• Get in just as the fear is on the horizon.
• Exit at the point of maximum fear just before the make or break it event.
• If there is no "make or break it event" then the absence of new fear-generating news is enough to end a strong, fear-based run. Even if all of the long-term affects are still looming, the absence of new fear-generating news is enough to stop fear-based trading and end a move.

In this case we have to add in the major: "President Speaks On The Economy" interventional. I expect I'll get back in (buy gold and gold mining call options) around 8:30AM on Friday when the interventional suppressing of gold intended to keep the president from looking bad peaks.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Trading Around The Point Of Maximum Fear

Just took profits on my call option trading positions in gold and GDX, the gold miners ETF. Still holding all the core positions. It seems to me that we have reached a point of maximum fear:

• It looks like Germany is going to back off more bailouts (see recent election results). Tomorrow is when the German supreme court decides whether EU bailouts are permitted. 
• All the panicked out of the US stock market belated flight-to-safety retail investors have come back from vacation and spent their wads.

Furthermore, the powers-that-be can paint a gold "double-top" by guiding gold down from here.

So, I expect:

• Neutral to downwards action from here today and tonight (without a big breakout above $1920).
• A "we're saved" headline out of Europe overnight.
• A multi-day gold correction.

Of course, this scenario may not work out and gold may jump hard tomorrow on a "the Euro is doomed" panic trade.

We'll see, but I'm betting the powers that be are not ready to crash and burn quite yet.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

Best Of The Message Boards And Best Of The Web: China "Gets Its" About Gold

Hat tip to InvestorVillage's coolreit for dredging this juicy item from the prolific ZeroHedge web site (click here). Here's the money quote:

"The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): 'According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration China 's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.'"

Well, this has been the GATA story (Bill Murphy and Chris Powell, etc.) for years. If this report is to be believed, the Chinese are with me among those who accept this "conspiracy theory". Furthermore, they are big enough to easily pull down the whole gold-suppression scheme themselves but instead are working behind the scenes to build a coalition of nations working to the same end. I would count, at a minimum, the Russians, the Venezuelans, the Khazaks and probably the Iranians among their committed partners. 

This story, by itself, has enough behind it (at a fundamental level) to keep pushing up the price of gold indefinitely. 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

UPDATE 15:37 EDT: This report appears to be legit. I was able to search it and find it among the wikileaks cables at this site, url is the search results url: http://cablesearch.org/cable/view.php?id=09BEIJING1134&hl=09BEIJING1134

 

One interesting thing about this is the date of the cable: 

"DATE

2009-04-28 08:23:00"

 

This means the Chinese have understood well what's happening with gold since at least April of 2009.

Large-Cap Gold Stock Momentum Trade

In the previous post I concluded that gold stocks now look attractive and that large-cap stocks will probably move first. The comment from Swedish goldbug nicely summarizes why the herd is likely to head into large-cap stocks first:

"I agree that large cap gold stocks are about to run. But my main argument is a bit different from yours.

It's all about the relative strength of large gold stocks vs "everything else". My point is that right about now, the large gold funds (for example Blackrock World Gold Fund) are outperforming even emerging market funds and are at the top of fund top lists over the last couple of months. This will have the effect that the part of the herd that invest their savings by trend following will pile into gold stocks. I do not use that strategy myself, but many people do. They just look at the best performers last three months and buy them and re-balance their funds every other month.

Look for example at this swedish internet broker:
https://www.avanza.se/aza/fonder/fonder.jsp

The first table are the top 8 performing funds the last three months
The second table is the most bought funds the last three months

BlackRock World Gold is the best performing fund and has just reached place no 8 on most bought funds. And is probably rising on the most bought list.

The herd money are coming!"

This post covers my decision making process regarding how to play this given that I don't have a real edge when it comes to gold stock picking right now and given that I want whatever I choose to be liquid (something I can easily exit in one day if the trade goes against me).

From my current universe of precious metal miners, I'm looking for a short-term, very liquid trade, probably using December call options. I take those stocks which are primarily gold miners with more than 10M$ traded per day (thus discarding SLW and MFN, but keeping GORO just because I really like it fundamentally) I get the stocks given in the following three-month perf chart:

 
In order of performance, the stock symbols are: NGD (New Gold), AUY (Yamana), RGLD (Royal Gold), FNV.TO (Franco Nevada), GG (GoldCorp) with EGU.TO (European Goldfields) and GORO (Gold Resource Corp) bringing up the rear.

I wish I had an edge on the fundamentals of these stocks, but I don't.

Here's my impression of the charts (in the order given above):

NGD, AUY, RGLD,  - Looks overbought, but has tracked the price of gold.

FNV.TO - A little less overbought. 

GG - Not overbought, but not breaking out to all time highs, either.

GORO, EGU.TO - some pretty sad looking charts given the price moves in gold. The GORO chart is threatening to break down. Not bad for a bottom-feeder, though.

Well, I don't like any of those charts. GDX has the daily and weekly charts I like the best with nice breakouts (but leaving a gap behind) and nice, but not overbought MACD and RSI.

At this point, I just bought a fairly big $55 Dec call options position in GDX in my trading account and putting my IRA's cash into GDX. The sum of the GDX stock and options owned is around 12% of my total porfolio value. The total amount of GDX controlled is around 10% of what my accounts now control in gold and stocks and I now have nearly no cash and am leveraged up around 2.5 to 1 (leverage provided by call options, not by anything with unlimited risk). That's pretty as aggressive as I get, overall.

Let me know what you think,

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

 

This Is Not A 2008 Replay

Let's see, there's a few things that are like 2008:

• Economy rolling over - take today's unemployment number for example.
• Stock market falling hard after failing to rebound to a higher high.
• Rumors of Too-Big-To-Fail banks collapsing (Bank of America and the French banks).

But here's what's different:

• Gold is up uncontrollably hard (> 2%) on an unemployment numbers day when the stock market, copper and crude oil are all down. That's very different from a typical 2008 down day.
• Gold stocks are up hard (> 2%) on such a day (whereas in 2008 they went down 2 or 3 times harder than the general stock market).
• Gold stocks are breaking out to an all-time high whereas they got crushed in 2008.

The big picture chart for gold stocks below shows the intraday all-time high and the giant cup and handle formation targeting another 45% move higher from the current price.

So, today seems like a major turning point to me as gold stocks seem to finally be a better place to be than gold itself. Now, the retail investor will probably put this together over the weekend. There should be a nice pop in gold stocks first thing Monday morning as they move in.

So, in my opinion, today is the day to buy gold mining stocks.

But, for more than a year I've been focusing on gold trading and not the stocks and I've lost my gold stock picking edge. I've take off today to try to "cram" and make some stock picks before the close. This is an example of where my hobby day-job (networking software engineer) affects my trading. If I were trading full time I'd still have my edge and be ready to buy.

They say that with a gold mining stock run the large-caps move first, then the small producers and then the explorers. I'll probably focus on the large-caps today mostly.

Let me know what you think,

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., I got stopped out of the copper short position right at the very top. Arghhh!