I closed all my trading positions (which were long "at the money on entry" gold call options) right after today's silver takedown started. I know that all of the long-term fundamentals for gold (and silver, I guess) are bullish and that even the short-term has some things going for it with all the civil unrest around the world and the PIIGS and everything, but... the seasonals are just dismal for this time of year so I'm going to get out of the way for the month of June, I think.
I expect to reenter late this month or early July (see http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/2011/05/trading-gold-thru-the-summer-part-4-a-look-at-the-weeklies.html). Again, the trading system I expect to follow is:
- Start looking at the end of the 4th week of June.
- Enter gold long on a week ending where it looks like a bottom is in, specifically:
- the week's low was higher than the week before's low.
- the week before's low was higher than the low of the week before that.
- Get stopped out on an intraweek low that is lower than the low of the week before the week before entry.
- Hold on tightly and exit at the close of the last week that starts in November.
- Optionally consider a 10% trailing stop.
I haven't been posting much, mainly because I'm not sure what to say. The risk trade seems "off" for now, something bad is looming on the horizon (probably another financial scare recession), the precious metal seasonals are dismal, the gold mining stocks are lagging, but you can find just about all of this material on any of the gold-bug web sites. I'm a little surprised the seasonals don't get covered more methodically on those sites and the whole historical parallels based trading method is the only thing that has been giving me an edge this year.
UPDATE: Isn't trading aggravating? I sold (took reasonably substantial profits) right before gold popped up. ARGH!!! I'll never get any satisfaction from trading if I let this kind of thing really get to me.
Not so bad now:
And look at what happened to silver! Yikes!!!