John Hussman is my favorite of the main-stream investment commentators. He brings a conservative, fundamentals approach to stock investing with a deep, academic insight into the macro-economic outlook. This week (click here) he brings the graphs and data to show that about the only thing quantitative easing really does is unnaturally and only for the short-term ramp up asset prices, especially gold as hoarding commodities beats getting a negative real-rate of return on bonds.
He claims that historically gold stocks do great (something like an %86 per annum return) when real-interest rates are negative and when the Chicago purchase manager's index is sub-50 (indicating contraction). The most recent PMI was 60.4, so we haven't gotten to is ideal condition for gold stocks yet.
At little tough to plow thru, but its really nice to have this kind of empirical backing for your main investment theme.
I'm still holding out until tomorrow to dispense with my 1/3 cash and plunge back fully into precious metals trades and investments.