I've been watching the price of gold very carefully since the end of 2007. I'm sure everyone has noticed that the price tends to fall some in the summer and tends to have good action in the fall and early in the year.
So, here's a look (click here: Download 20100805gldseasonals for spreadsheet) at what happens from where we are right now to the end of the month using as much historical data as I could easily obtain, specifically the GLD ETF weekly prices looking each year from the close of the second Friday in August (that would be next Friday).
I notice that:
- Even the worst years (2006 when gold was slammed in May and 2008 when gold was slammed in the fall of the great crash) that:
- gold ended up at the end of the following March more than 10% higher.
- the maximum loss you have to have the guts to sit thru was 8% and that in 2008 (which was a quite unusual year).
- On average the gains were over 20%.
Looks pretty good and I'm very much considering the best way to bet on more of the same. Leave me a comment on what you think and how you might play this.
Of course, this is not a recommendation and everyone must do their own due-diligence and take responsibility for their own investing decisions.