Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -23%

Here's a quick take the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims rise unexpectedly... The number of newly laid-off workers filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly surged last week after having fallen sharply in the previous week. The gain dampened hopes about how quickly the labor market may improve this year."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 476,730 in the week ending Feb. 13, a decrease of 30,850 from the previous week. There were 619,951 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100218yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - I'm still looking at the recession over recession non-seasonally adjusted graph below which is getting uglier. Which of the three lines looks like it best tracks the data? For me it used to be the green line where claims would match the previous recession around June (when unemployment bottomed for the Internet Bubble recession peaked). The dark red line looks like a better fit now and the bright red line looks like a contender. Both red lines indicate an even more "jobless recovery" than the Internet Bubble recession's recovery. Yikes!

 



 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us