Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall -22.25%, BUT... Potential Trend Change

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "First-time jobless claims rise unexpectedly... New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 480,000 as layoffs continue, jobs remain scarce... The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 530,405 in the week ending Jan. 30, an increase of 28,234 from the previous week. There were 682,176 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20100204yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Still on track to have unemployment peak in June 2010 when comparing this downturn with the Internet Bubble recession. As you will recall, unemployment peaked for the Internet Bubble Pop recession in June 2003. BUT... another couple of weeks like this one and the trend will have changed to something more like the red arrow. That would leave the USA with rising unemployment for a lot longer than people are expecting.

 

 
 

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

P.S., I've been concentrating on my day-job lately. I have a chance to make a real contribution that could pull a 300 person division out of the fire. I do see that its affecting my posting and even my investing edge.

Comments

[Gold_tracker]

I'm of the opinion that come tomorrow and the birth/death numbers the markets will very likely take a long hard pause and the continue the rush.