Greecian Crisis: Who Benefits?

I think this Greecian debt crisis is being managed. The result of this crisis has been:

• The fall of the Euro - which benefits Germany's export economy.
• The rise of the dollar - which benefits the USA's Federal Reserve which will need to announce further Quantitative Easing in March to keep the real-estate market from collapsing faster/further. This will certainly hurt the dollar.

I think the Greecian debt crisis is being managed to achieve these two ends and that Germany in particular will, at the time of its choosing, go soft attempting to prevent a collapse of the entire Euro Monetary Union. I think they may let Greece do an Iceland and completely collapse, but that they have to draw the line at Spain because a genuine crisis there would kill the EMU.

Where's the best place (other than Ambrose Evans Pritchard) to get coverage / analysis of this situation?

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us

Comments

[MontyHigh]

Thanks for the great comment. Let me know what you think the best information/analysis sources are. Would like to spin up on this.

MontyHigh

[MontyHigh]

Thanks for the comment. The link was pretty valuable.

MontyHigh

[MontyHigh]

Ruud,

Thankyou for the compliments and the thought provoking questions.

Nobody knows the future and we all have to make our own investing decisions and take responsibility for them.

At this point in my life, with a lucrative day-job and paid off home, Im in a good position to accept significant risk and volatility in my investments.

Im convinced that, provided the price of gold holds up, my favorite Jr Gold producers (GORO.OB, OGC.TO, TRY.TO, DMM.TO, CGA.TO, MAI.TO, SMF.TO) are significantly undervalued both relative to their peers and the general market. Undervalued as in I expect at least a double from each.

Im watching the price of gold closely, following especially the action in India, whether India is importing or not. The only good, daily source I know of for following this is www.lemetropolecafe.com, a subscription service. Im convinced that as long as they are buying in India the price of gold will be supported. They remain buyers in India.

So, I remain long my Jr Gold producers.

Now for your questions in order:
o Will there be another General Stock Market crash - I just dont know. Im watching things carefully as you are and remaining in my current positions based on my thinking above.
o Will gold stocks crash along with the General Stock Market - again, I dont know, but I suspect they will. They did last time and they seem to go down with every breath of deflation. Still, as long as the price of gold holds up the ones Im holding will be printing money and will eventually be, I believe, revalued higher.
o Because i live in Holland i also have a currency risk, euro versus
canadian dollar, the euro is more expensive against the canadian
dollar. Can you tell me if the canadian dollar in the near future will
increase or of it will decrease similar as the US Dollar?
- I dont know. I think youve been doing well lately holding Canadian stocks given the Euro action. I guess Im with the gold bugs that there will be big problems with all of the fiat currencies. Its hard to tell when there will be a big shift as far as this goes.
o Will commodities(copper, nickel, zinc. lead, oil, nat.gas, uranium) do
well or are Gold, gold stocks and Silver and silver stocks the only
assets for the coming years where you shoud be in as investors? - Great question. If the second great depression hits, I think ordinary commodities will go down hard. Oil is likely to do better as Im convinced that Peak Oil is real and that there are no substitutes for oil that are nearly as valuable. Uranium as that 2013 the Soviet weopons uranium runs out story. I dont know about that. Im in Jr Gold producers because I think the price of gold will hold up, the stocks are due for a double if they do hold up and I can monitor whether gold is going to hold up by watching the action in India. I dont have as much confidence in anything else. I keep thinking Ill buy into some oil stocks when oil gets down in the 60s, but I never do.

Hope you find this helpful, but Im just a software engineer who is taking this stuff very seriously and who believes that nobody cares about my retirement savings like I do (and thus I have to take responsibility for it myself.

Gotta go,

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us