What I'm Thinking About The General Markets, Gold, Copper

I hear the Jay Taylor, the news letter writer is all gloom and doom on all stocks (including gold miners). I presume he's calling for deflation.

I'm:
o Watching gold closely. If it goes below $1040 (what Indian govt paid) and stays there I'll start selling Jr miners hard.
o Bearish on copper - short something like 20% of my portfolio in the copper futures market. If support at $3.00/lb breaks down then look out below. Inventories are still ramping up at around 10000 tonnes/week. Yikes!
o Bearish on the general market - at least until the next round of quantitative easing is complete.

There's a lot of people using the financial trouble in Greece to their advantage:
o Germany - want the Euro to go down to boost their exports.
o USA (Bernanke) - wants the dollar to go up so that he can announce another round of QE.

o China - wants the dollar to go up (pulling the renimbi with it) to quench growing inflation.

The way I currently look at the inflation / deflation debate is as follows:

o Threatened or incipient Deflation promotes inflation - when deflation looms its ugly head then...

o The central bankers start printing money (via their governments going crazy with deficit spending and with the central bankers monetizing that debt by buying the government bonds)

o Resulting eventually in a reflation (inflation) trade.

Right now we are in a threated / incipient deflation wave.

I expect this trend (deflation) to continue for around another month at least. Will back out of the copper shorts if another round of QE is announced. Will continue to get shorter as long as inventories are rising the price of copper keeps falling. I think the price of copper has been trending strongly and will continue to do so.

I think there's a decent chance that the fundamentals for gold (central bank and investor buy, especially in China and India) will stop the gold price slide very soon. We'll see.

That's how I see it.

MontyHigh

Comments

[David Jensen]

Monty,

You do a nice job on this website.

I see deflation as something very different from dropping prices. The Fed is racing to contain M1, M2, M3 right now (M3 is negative) and we are heading for a credit market/stock market crash. This "deflation" is then going to show the years of monetary inflation with, ultimately, explosive consumer goods inflation as the bond market tanks. The monetary inflation has been hidden in the bond market for years and when unleashed, it will run.

Regards,
David Jensen
Vancouver, Canada