Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:
- Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless claims, goods orders signal modest rebound... A fitful economic recovery is drawing strength from a stabilizing job market and signs that manufacturing will contribute to the rebound."
- Labor Department News Release: click here.
- Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 561,902 in the week ending Dec. 19, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week. There were 719,615 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
- My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091224yoy).
Here's my uneducated interpretation - Year-over-year, unadjusted initial jobless claims had a great week (-21.9%), but one that does not change my forecast for unemployment peaking. Based on the recession over recession graph (below) and the previous recession's unemployment graphs (see further below) I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010. From this one data series, it appears that the economy is recovering.
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us
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