Unadjusted Year Over Year: Labor Department Initial Jobless Fall 11.83%

Here's the scoop on the Labor Department's weekly initial jobs claims report:

• Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Jobless-aid claims rise, but 4-week average falls... The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week as the recovery of the nation's battered labor market proceeds in fits and starts."
• Labor Department News Release: click here. 
• Key Numbers: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,344 in the week ending Dec. 12, a decrease of 107,393 from the previous week. There were 629,867 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."
• My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091217yoy).

Here's my uneducated interpretation - Initial jobless claims have been better, year-over-year, for 6 consecutive weeks. No real change from the last couple of weeks. Based on the recession over recession graph (below) and the previous recession's unemployment graphs (see further below) I'm still expecting unemployment to peak around June 2010 with unemployment staying in the high nines and tens for 2010.

MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us