Here's the summary for today's Census Department monthly Durable Goods Orders and Shipments report:
- Associated Press Headline And Lead: "Durable goods orders rise 1 percent in September... Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in September as the biggest jump in demand for machinery in 18 months offset weakness in commercial aircraft and autos."
- Labor Department News Release: click here.
- Key Numbers: Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers New Orders Not Seasonally Adjusted: $176,505,000,000, Year Ago: $213,675,000,000, -17.40%. Census Dept Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Not Seasonally Adjusted: $185,889,000,000, Year Ago: $219,940,000,000, -15.48%
- My Spreadsheet (click Download 20091028yoy)
Here's my uneducated interpretation - Unadjusted shipments and orders remain down hard year-over-year, but are getting better year over year slowly. The orders to shipment ratio remains under 100% meaning orders are not coming in fast enough to allow shipments to grow. This is bearish report for the economy, although durable goods are a lagging indicator.
Looking at the graph below, you see that the shipments (year over year) and orders (year over year) are still down hard but improving and are better than the net shipments ratio. I expect that this "improvement" will continue for sometime converging on the net shipments ratio. This will indicate a steady contraction of the economy until they all close in on zero. Based on the current rate of change that will about about January 2011.
AP Spin - no matter how bad the numbers are, AP persists in their spin that some kind of recovery is underway. They refuse to admit the possibility that the economy is still (and could for some time) continue to contract.
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us
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