Most of the gold world is focused on the US dollar gold chart and the magic $1000/oz level.
Here's the gold chart that I think is most important at this point: the price of gold in Indian Rupees. This price chart is very important because Indians buy actual, non-paper, physical gold and are very price sensitive. They don't want to over pay for it. They are not "momentum" players; they are buy the dip buyers.
As you can see, looking at the price from Sep 08 thru the end of Mar 09, the price of gold in Rupees experienced considerable volatility. Since then it has been in an ever tightening trading range with higher highs and steady resistance at the 46000 level. Its been within a 4 to 5% trading range since the end of Mar 2009.
That's probably a narrower trading range than just about anything else on the planet during that period.
The rising, flat-top, triangle formation in the above chart is a bullish continuation where the probability is that the price will continue its rising trend.
I expect you'll see a big move in the price of gold in US dollars take place when a breakout takes place in the rupee price of gold. The Indian, buy-the-dips approach to gold buying provides support for gold, but does not provide the impetus for an upside breakout. Only something fundamentally important can push the price of gold beyond the point where Indian buying falls off, in this case, 46000 rupees /oz.
Something important will be happening, when the price of gold moves outside of the chart's trading range.
Indian buying is seasonal and seasonally the buying picks up right around this time of the year. There's a good chance that the break out will come soon. The triangle formation indicates that something should happen within the next month.
This chart is yet another bullish data point for the price of gold. There are others which are outside of the scope of this post.
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us
dubai neevr surpass indian buying because indian buy gold for jewellery not for investment...
Posted by: Ragin | October 21, 2009 at 03:39 PM
Dubai, surpasses Indian buying.
(edit; when you wrote this piece ;-))
Posted by: Wil | August 20, 2009 at 07:12 PM