Here's the latest numbers courtesy of www.urbansurvival.com (interesting material on this site nearly every day coming out at 9AM).
The thing to look at here is the "% Case Change" which averages out to almost 46% DAILY!. Running a quick spreadsheet (using half that growth rate) we get the following two graphs. They indicate that this may be a pretty darn big story. Now, I'm not an expert and this is a darn crude model, but why doesn't the news media contact some real experts and show us a real model?
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us
I guess I just have difficulty panicking. The mortality rate of first world cases - those with access to decent health care - is still much, much lower than that of Mexican cases. And I'm pretty sure you could make this kind of extrapolation for pretty much any bug that's going around. Most bugs hit a critical point where they stop spreading at such an "alarming" rate long before everybody on earth is infected. You'll note that the percentages drop as more cases appear, try extrapolating that trend.
It doesn't hurt to be prepared, but at the same time it doesn't make sense to hide in your room every time there's a nasty bug in circulation.
Posted by: Neil | May 07, 2009 at 11:32 AM