On May 7, I put up some scary graphs about what would happen if the flu pandemic kept growing at its current rate (click here). This post compares what actually happened compared to those projections. It then provides revised projections based on the actual records. The data comes from the World Health Organization via www.urbansurvival.com.
This graph shows that the number of cases has quadrupled since May 7, but that even so it has not kept up with the original estimates. Neither have the deaths.
The graphs below provide a revised extrapolation based on a growth rate of 16.74% per day and death rate of .85% of cases. This matches what has been seen between May 7 and today. This still show the entire population getting the flu before the end of the summer, but the number of fatalities has fallen to a little under 60 million. Still seems like a big deal that is not getting adequate coverage.
FWIW, here's the primitive spreadsheet this is based on.