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May 17, 2009

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Professional Trader

ShaunVFX,

who stepped on your nuts?

Looks like I was vindicated in every sense.

Palm-pre is released 6 months after it was announced, and has a whopping 12 apps in it's app store. I surely don't know what I'm talking about, as I'm an apple fan boy.... (which, I rated platform #4 to be supported).

to quote Walt Mossberg of the U.S.'s Wall Street Journal:

"I believe the Pre is a smart, sophisticated product that will have particular appeal for those who want a physical keyboard. It is thoughtfully designed, works well and could give the iPhone and BlackBerry strong competition — but only if it fixes its app store and can attract third-party developers."

I'm shocked no reviewer has interviewed developers on why only 12 apps were available at launch - this will be the death of the phone. When the Google app store launched (only supported by 1 phone) it had over 1000 available titles. For most developers it was trivial to port major java development efforts written for other operating systems.

Oh yes. I run Joiku, one of the largest mobile software development houses in Europe (we call them development houses vs. software companies here). As you can see from our list of supported devices, we write code for more operating systems and handsets than any other company on the planet: http://www.joiku.com/?action=devices

However, because of the huge limitations in the palm-pre's SDK, we can't port any of our applications. You just can't write a wireless router in javascript without access to any of the equipment inside the phone. Nor can you write any major games, GPS applications, wi-fi apps, etc...

JamesAven


I will recommend using http://EmailCharger.com for all email marketing needs. Its the best desktop email marketing software I have used so far.

Internet Hater

IT professional and gadget enthusiast, it's "lose" not "loose". Sorry, it's a HUGE pet peave of mine.

palmprefan

If you're considering defensible positions, you need to take into account the carrier's position as well. What the Pre does have is the fact that it is the "it" phone for Sprint. Like the BB Storm on Verizon, customers will flock to it because, honestly, there are no better alternatives on the Sprint network. Being a Pre fan (hence the nickname), I will say that the Pre's technology is strong, the development platform is solid, the app publisher support is building momentum, and the form factor is not ugly, but I think the carrier "moat" is what will bolster the Pre's standing in the market. Look for this to deteriorate when Palm starts slapping WebOS on other phones on other carriers (rumored).

barryp3403

The Pre will sell fairly well on Sprint but if the Pre moves to Verizon in six months like the Palm Centro did six months after its release Pre sales will be likely to rocket.

Scott McCarty

I do think this article is a bait to get some analysts out of the woodwork. Well, here is my analysis.

First, the comparison of iPhone vs. Palm pre in google trends is skewed for several reasons. Apple is way over represented in all forms of media compared to it's market share. Watch any TV program and try and find a PC, even thought their real market share is less than 20%. This combined with the fact that the iPhone has been out for several years is a complete apples to oranges comparison. Try comparing "palm pre, blackberry tour" or "palm pre, blackberry onyx" in google trends and you have a much better comparison. Third, apple users are much more aware and vocal about products coming from apple.

Third party development is important to some extent and with a clean javascript API which should be easy for many web developers to use, I think this platform will attract a new type of developer to the mobile platform.

I think Palm is still in danger, even if they do hit a decent success with this latest platform, because they are carrying a lot of debt. I am still not convinced that Palm stock has much potential for earnings in the short run (next 1-3 years), unless the platform is a wild success.

I think this platform will determine the survival of Palm, but I am unconvinced that it will make any millionaires with their stock. Remember your share price is diluted by all of that debt that they are carrying. I think other tech companies may be a better investment at this early in the game. I am holding off a bit to see if they can pay down debt, if they have a decent enough success.

There is some promise though as I have been reading little tidbits about their distribution at Walmart, etc. It will be interesting to see what kind of sales volume they can generate.

W.E.

BOOO! This blog holds no water based on trends. It hasnt even made it onto the shelves! Give it a month, look at sales and reviews, and then redo this blog, and I bet your opinion changes.

Derrick

I have to agree with the poster that said the developers will make or break the OS. They will determine which OS wins. I'm not an Apple Fan Boy by any means, but I do own an iPhone. I actually switched back to Windows Mobile (HTC Touch HD, imported to the US)and ended up switching right back to the iPhone. The apps were key. The fluidity of the apps, everything seemed much better. I've been a smartphone junkie for years so the one thing that really p1ssed me off and that really stood out was...

1. No multitasking support with iPhone. Jobs claims it kils battery life. Jobs, go "F" yourself Windows Mobile has been multitasking since day one. Anyone that uses a phone heavily knows they need a car charger or extra battery. How about you let WE the consumer make the decision. Just like he wouldn't allow 3rd party app developement at first, then said OK web only apps, now he allows real app developement. Not for any reason other than the ability to make money using the APP store.

2. You have to jailbreak the thing just to make your phone work like it should have from Apple.

3. 2 years for copy/paste? Realy? And you still haven't released 3.0? Ridiculous.

4. Apple/AT&T (mostly Apple) and their dictatorship. Nothing more annoying then Apple constantly telling developers what they can and cannot develop. What is and what is NOT acceptable. How about letting the developers develop, and let the consumers choose?

5. Nothing like a real physical QWERTY keyboard. I'm all for a slimmer phone, but nothing beats a real keyboard. But I would sacrifice it for the right phone. The iPhone was the right phone at the time to make that sacrifice.

6. Apple/AT&T ridiculously stupid unfair practices:
A. Why can't we purchase insurance on the iPhone like we can on other cell phones on AT&T network?
B. Why is the Slingplayer being restricted on the iPhone to WiFi only, but other units BB, WM aren't?
C. Why must iPhone users be tied to a strict service plan? One that's at least $10 or more exensive than average plans?

I LOOOOVE my iPhone. ButI also HAAAAATE it for many reasons. I still think it's the best smartphone out for non-email intensive users. In other words if you live and die by a BlackBerry then an iPhone isn't for you. I also think that many have tried to imitate the iPhone and did so POORLY! Look at the Blackberry Bold? HORRIBLE! The Sprint Instinct, terrible, etc etc.

The reason I think the Palm Pre will succeed is, for one it's Palm. They do have a cult following. The phone is the first real phone to REALLY compete wth the iPhone. It doesn't rely on a front end to Windows Mobile (like HTC does). It pretty much does everything the iPhone can do but better (and more functionality). Palm is already releasing a phone with copy/paste (Apple I really don't understand you). They're allowing multitasking. Thank you Palm for not standing behind that cop out about battery life. They have a real keyboard, a removeable battery, etc. The OS and interface is smooth, fluid, and just as nice if not nicer than the iPhone's interface. Palm took time to study before releasing some half-a$$ed OS like others.

Apple is a money hungry company that knows how to appeal to people. The problem is, I never liked Apple and many others don't or haven't but we loved the iPhone. Now it's just a matter of getting something BETTER than an iPhone by a company that's NOT Apple, or at least getting something that can really compete with the iPhone so people can switch to a company and phone that allows for less restrictions and more ability for the consumer to do as he/she pleases.

The key for Palm is appealing to developers. The benefit is app for WebOS are based off CSS, JAVA, HTML5, and other standard web protocols making it an easy transition for lots of developers. Now they need to ensure the create an App Store that can allow developers to generate revenue (part of the reason the Apple App store flurished), allow the SDK to be more open and flexible than Apple. Support to the developers, and give them a reason to develop for the OS. Then Palm can make those gay commericials that Apple does "there's an App for that".

Come on Palm I'm ready to drop some money and see if you've got the right formula this time.

Pollmak

From an IT Professional and Gadget enthusiast:

People are going on and on about iPhone loosing out to Palm Pre, when in reality you will probably find Blackberry loosing out to the Palm Pre. (I know: I have and support Blackberries.)

The Palm Pre is the the best device that has best of both iPhone and Blackberry functionality, with the greatest software for a internet enabled Phone ever: WebOS.

The iPhone is entertainment device that can make phone calls.

The Blackberry is a fat phone and Office email device, that is trying to do the other cool things. (the cool things feel unfinished)

The Palm Pre, is a complete Communication device that can does in fact have cool entertainment features and from what I have seen is going to be a Game changer and will lead the Smart phone market.

The smart Phone revolution has only just begun and Palm is getting in on the the action and knows how to be a market leader. Dell once wrote off Apple, then the iPhone was released, the rest was History.
Anyone writing off Palm now before the Massively anticipated Palm Pre is released, does not know technology, should not advise on technology stock and simply will loose out on making money. I believe this article is "set-up" to draw attention and I would not be surprised if the Author has stock in Palm and is buying stock for Steve Jobs. (Steve is more interested in making money just look at the Price Apple products and the whole options debacle will always remain a stain on his shirt)

There are no winner or looses as the Smart Phone Market: is new, is Huge and there is enough business to go around...for now. The leaders only will emerge in 3-5 years time.

Lishes

I'm a regular dude serving as a call center manager for a 500 seat outfit. My call center is full of folks with cell phones, buncha Iphones, and their nifty cases. Everyone seems to njoy the fun of their Iphones, however the constant complaint is the same; AT&T coverage sucks. Dropped calls, no bars, etc.

I've been holding on to my Treo even though my Sprint contract ended months ago just to get my hands on the Pre.

It's fresh, ambitious and it's not an Iphone. The Iphone is cool, but i'm a grown a$$ man and I would appreciate the ability to multi task on my device the same way that I multitask in real life. Not too much to ask.

Btw, nice site! (found you on a Goodle search for Palm Pre News)

ShaunVFX

@Professional Trader

Shouldn't your name be more like Professional Tirader? You are an idiot and it is presented clearly in your anecdotal BS.

Stop pretending to be someone else and just admit you are an Apple Fan Boy.

CEO of a Mobile Software house.... house like you are cranking out apps at an alarming rate? Wouldn't you use this opportunity to at least advertise yourself?

If by house you meant your 'Mother's Basement' and by CEO you meant 'the only employee' then great, keep living the dream.

FYI--- Most of the people I know using an iPhone won't pay for apps in the app store... they either jailbreak the phone and use the stuff for free or they use the phone with the stuff it came with and the free apps available. I don't think third party developers are going to win this war, if anything they are going to hold it back. Think about it, do you really think Apple is going to want to innovate now to a more mature platform when they have so much garbage clogging their app store?

Apple will either need to leave some of their lesser developers (3rd party) by the way side in order to innovate or they will need to lag leading into the next curve.... now is not forever and technology rapidly changes. Anyway, now I am ranting but you get the idea...

Have you ever heard of a problem caused by eye-dee-ten-tee? Your 'employees' probably refer to you in that light and you are probably too stupid to get it.

Idiot.

Professional Trader

Looks like the palmnuts are out tonight!

I was an early palm fan from the treo 300 on. They lost their edge on ever level; hardware, software, third party applications (yes they had lots, but they were not up to date). This war will be won by third party developers creating incredible applications, not a great new OS. Velocity is so high on competitive products, I'm afraid the world doesn't need a sixth string player at this point.

I'm the CEO of a mobile software house - I look at penetration to determine where my development funds go. Here's my platform choices:

1) Symbian (More Symbian phones are sold in a quarter globally than RIM+ Iphone in a year; development tools are very good)
2) RIM (this is an anomaly as our software is skewed toward the enterprise; bad developer tools)
3) Windows Mobile (great developer tools, huge installed base)
4) Iphone (developer tools getting better, installed base increasing)
5) Android (great developer tools, small installed base)
5) Palm Pre (No installed base, STILL WAITING ON USABLE DEVELOPER TOOLS!)

That last point is the most important. Palm took 2 months to provide access to their 'mojo' development kit - this is for a large reputable firm. When we finally got it, it was almost unusable. Unstable, no real virtual handset environment. As a former loyal 'fan' of the old Palm OS / TREO line, I can't tell you how disappointed I was. No true multitasking, no true background processing, no radio handshake control, third party developers seem to be locked out of several basic functions of the application (why can't I embed my own render palm???)

Most of the questions in third party development forums go unanswered, and it seems more than a few ambitious products have already been abandoned. Unless Palm plans on increasing it's own development staff to 10,000 developers to compete, the air is thick with the smell of defeat before the gun is even fired.

Brad

You may also be underestimating the resentment AT&T has been accumulating. I switched to AT&T so I could buy an iPhone, took it home, and found that there were NO bars at my home (in a densely populated suburb of Cleveland) and I returned it 12 hours after purchasing it. I was charged a 10% restocking fee, even though the reason I returned the phone was that AT&T had NO BARS where I live. AT&T and Apple blamed eachother for the restocking fee but both refused to relent. THEN they charged me an early cancelation fee and turned me over to a bill collector when I refused to pay it. Friends don't let Friends use AT&T.

I switched back to Sprint which, for my money, has the widest coverage, the fastest speeds, and, hands down, the best pricing. For me, the combination of a sharp phone, a killer operating system and a terrific carrier is an unbeatable combination. I won't claim to see the future of either company's stock price and I sure don't know whether there will be any unpleasant surprises with the OS once it gets into wide use but, for now, it sure looks like both companies are going to enjoy great success with the phone and the new WebOS.

Crazy From The Heat

I can only tell you one thing as I shop for new phones. No grown up is using an IPhone. Blackberry is good, but Palm will put their feet to the file. It's the biggest buzz in the industry in years, and as an early adopter, it's the phone I will get. Sadly disappointed by the MS Smart Phone operating system,Palm will be easy to approach for folks who hate the Apple attitude, are ambivalent about a Blackberry, but still want the "next big thing." Palm + Sprint will both rise on this. The height will be relative to price point and inventory.

Abhi

Palm is a well known brand amongst everyone who were early adopters in the smartphone segment, with people happily choosing a Treo 650/750 over a blackberry 3-4 years back. Palm went through major rough patches when they sold their OS to Access - they just couldn't concentrate on getting out new phones and a new OS on time. The Centro and Treo Pro turned out to be interim products while they worked on their next OS.

And now that the Pre is coming out soon, and has all the core elements of the previous OS (most notably ease-of-use), you absolutely cannot make any trends about a corporate that had a cult following because of its OS (The Treo hardware was nothing great - Nokia and Blackberry had already started spinning out thinner smartphones)

I think you should keep long on Palm instead - the OS, the biggest weakness of Palm 1 year earlier, is now set to become its biggest strength today.

Further, if (and thats a big IF) WebOS can run Blackberry Connect, or the PalmOS emulator can run Blackberry Connect, then all your theories will go down the drain - this will be THE phone with everything one needs to organize his life, fetch his email, entertainment etc, all seamlessly working together and simultaneously.

MontyHigh

Thanks for the comment. How did you find me?

Gerry Labels

Better get on that due diligence partner... your comment "the Palm Pre is completely unknown to the public" is the first assumption you'd better double check. I work for a major wireless provider that is not named Sprint and I've never seen anything like this in terms of anticipation by the early adopters. Palm's system is more open arch than apple's, they're the pioneer in mobile device apps (and very low cost one's at that) due to the easy of development on their system. I have an Iphone right now and I'd gladly shell out the dough for a slide out keyboard, and multi-tasking. The I-phone will in my opinion be outmatched in every way by this palm phone, especially for the business crowd.

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