Revisited: Is Gold Overbought? How Far Will It Run? Recent History As A Guide

On February 22, I asked the above questions and gave some evidence that it would run into the 1200s (click here).

So, do we have answers to the above questions? Yes we do:

• Was Gold Overbought? ANSWER: YES
• How Far Will It Run From 2/22/2009? ANSWER: No where, that was an intermediate top.

Time for me to eat a little humble pie. But the article did begin with "I don't know how much credence what I'm about to present". I've been eating a lot of humble pie this week. On Monday I "called' (actually guessed) that the bottom was in. WRONG.

I guess one more thing. When I put the original 2/22/2009 post on a precious metals message board it got 30 "recommendations". This is a good gauge of how much people like to get information that confirms their biases even if it really doesn't have much to back it up.

MontyHigh

Comments

[Neil]

Just because something turns out to be wrong, doesn't mean it didn't have much to back it up. It was a good post, and presented good arguments. Patterns seem like they ought to have been completely predictable once they're fully formed - they almost always conform to what technical analysis predicts. But when only half the data is there, guessing just which pattern is forming is very challenging.