I've been listening to financialsense.com's weekly broadcasts for about a year now.
Jim Puplava has been a crude oil and precious metals perma bull the whole time. Obviously, he has been dead wrong on crude oil since the beginning of July. That's five months of being really, badly wrong to the tune of over 60% in the crude oil price. You can't chalk that up to missing a short-term correction.
This weekend's broadcast telegraphs why Puplava has been so wrong: The entire discussion of crude oil and energy is entirely focused on supply issues. The failure to consider changes in demand clearly accounts for Puplava's missing a really important call. Clearly it has been falling demand and the anticipation of further falling demand that has been the driving force behind crude oil prices since last July.
I expect that over the long-term, the Peak-Oil related supply issues are so substantial as to overcome the recession related demand-reduction, but it may be a while. So, I'm reduced to watching, rather than trading.
MontyHigh
P.S., Obviously I've made tonnes of bad calls myself over the last year and most of all the same bad call as Puplava, not seeing that the jig was up for commodities in July. I'm not trying to blame Puplava, but rather understand where he went wrong so that I can avoid following him over a cliff next time.
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