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August 03, 2008

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B.J. Potter

patience and keep buying as the juniors and mid-tiers get hammered...eventually people will realize the dollar is worthless and big money will shift into the gold and silver mining sector as physical
and paper is bought in a big way...gold and silver are real money and I don't see the U.S. keeping our economy together without a major wreck that wakes everyone up to reality...hoping for silver and gold to go to new highs by early 2009...NXG pulls 400,000 ounces of gold per annum out of the ground and has a P/E just under 10 with a forward P/E under 5 (something has to give on these realities)...patience
long Hecla Mining (HL), Northgate Minerals (NXG), Canadian Zinc (CZICF), Coeur D'alene (CDE), Western Goldfields (WGW), Endeavour Silver (EXK) and
Minera Minerals (MNEAF)

rick

most juniors don't have great land. that's it. and they don't care, they just want a paycheck.
as per the .com like comment, look at the last 2yrs venture IPO's and even the ones post sept 2007- they seem like good properties and decent companies. its the old 2002-2005 companies that stink.

Public Heel

4. What do you think will signal a good entry point for Jr precious metal emerging producers?


When they drop no faster than their metal (au or ag). Then, you can short the metal and go long the miner.

thewanderer

Some years ago I bought SSRI from $1.50 to $2.00 range due to hard circumstances I had to sell, ( sold my winners SSRI,held my Winstar,worldcom huge mistake) I feel like I'm getting a second chance with GRC . Good management, little dilution , Production suppose to begin this year. Goal of 1/3 divedends, 1/3 for taxes and 1/3 build up the mines

Do you know the Reids personaly?
If I had the bucks I'd like to go visit them and get a better feel about wether I've made the correct decision or not.

roberto

'2: What life lessons have you learned about Jrs from this trying period?'

Forgot to respond to this one. I've learned nothing. Every year, I say I'm going to sell in March, or April at the latest because I know what's going to happen, but I get sucked in again because I don't believe it will happen this time. This has been going on for many years. There seems to be no cure except: Don't Sell!

roberto

Well, I hold AUN 50k and I hold AXR 35k, and a bunch of others, but those two are my main focus; SLW and others I trade in and out of in the 5 or 6 digit range; I have a small stable of stocks that I feel I have a feel for, and I 'farm' them. I must say that AXR has been a very frustrating hold; I've made a lot by trading it in the past, but the recent small-cap market disaster has made everything more difficult. We have a world financial crisis, and money is hard to find. AXR seems to be boxed in by iceberg orders (is Casey a suspect? They admit to big holdings in this one before, and they went from Best Buy to buy under 4 dollars to buy under 3 dollars, etc; is anyone going to bid higher if they go from Best Buy to buy under 3 dollars?); this is good in a way - it stops the big drops, but it also inhibits the breakouts. The downside? The stock has been ground down from 5.50 to 3 bucks. My current observations: SLW could be a candidate to target AXR; also, PAA is making some noises about acquiring near-producers, I assume in relatively 'safe' territory (nothing is really safe!) - they're the silver guys, and I can't imagine them not considering AXR. Nova of course, if they get the loot together is a natural as well.
AUN I consider in these terms: Why is EDR 3 bucks, and AUN 50 cents? AUN has MORE than EDR. Just that the market is crazy, I suppose. But AUN will have its day; it hit 2 bucks before and I think it's a 5 buck stock.

I-Man

What I've learned is that I was too early getting into Metanor and too late to get into Sangold. Looks like they are taking down SGR today on good drill results, could be a time to finnaly pick some up. Hopefully by the end of the year these jr. prices will seem like a small bump in the road.

The prices are volitale, that's for sure, as Jay Taylor always says you can sell half when your Jr stock doulbes and then you own it for free, you 'playing with the house money'

Bruno in TX

I think the credit crisis has had a large effect on mining juniors. That plus the rising costs to operate or build a mine. The two are related. If it costs more to build a mine and the money is harder to get, the chances that the mine will get built are much lower. Case in point is Nova Gold and Galore Creek project. When they announced they were putting the project on hold because costs had risen too much, the stock tanked. Copper Fox and others in the neighborhood tanked with it. The disease has spread through the whole sector. People don't want to assume the risk that despite good drilling results etc. the mine will not get built or that if it does they won't make any money because of higher costs to operate the mine. This is what is dragging down even some of the mining majors.

MontyHigh

David,

You and I have a lot in common.

I own a lot of NRDS. I used to own a lot of SRZ and First Nickel and have owned GlobeStar.

I jumped out of base metals last fall when it was clear the US was going into a recession.

I went into precious metals for safety. Its been pretty frustrating to have made the right Macro call, right sector call and then be in the whole for making the wrong investment vehicle call.

I've been playing with futures some. I expect that going forward that I'll be shifting my trading from stocks to Futures.

I'd like to stay in touch. What message boards do you post on and what's your handle.

Monty

mike tracy

What do you think best explains the underperformance of Jr precious metal emerging producers?
A. OK, here goes, fundamentally I think humans prefer or trust investing in products of human minds, intellectual property, versus product of mother nature i.e. natural resources and raw materials. People sense more value in a new mortgage back derivitive security, or the latest gigahertz quad core 128 bit multi-processor, or in a genetically engineered medicine. It just seems smarter to invest there versus a pile of zinc ore (or a moose pasture). It's just not sexy. Tech is sexy.

What life lessons have you learned about Jrs from this trying period?
A. Don't live or work in a high rise building.

Which do you like and why?
A. I don't invest much in PM, more industrial metals. I have been continuously green on Capstone until today's 13% fall to $3.00. I like copper plays where costs can be held at about $1/lb by the sale of Zn, Ag, Pb, Ni, AU, Ga, whatever. I like SRZ for that purpose. I prefer North American based assets. Mexico, US, Canada. NRDS is one I own too. Oh yes, and First Nickel because of the copper/nickel combination. Nickel will be back. Oh, and GlobeStar because there are no Moose in the Domenican Republic.

What do you think will signal a good entry point for Jr precious metal emerging producers?
A. No help there Monty. I have been burned with GSS, AUR, etc. I prefer an industrial metal producer with a PM or rare earth offset.


David

Regarding GSS, I held this stock back in 2003 and made some money on it. But I finally got tired of the constant dilution and private placement pattern, so I sold and have never been back. Looking at the chart today, the stock WAY below where I sold it.

I'm personally suffering badly with Minera Andes MNEAF.OB. The stock has fallen from $2 to $0.88 in about 5 months. Other than a Canadian private placement at $1.50, not much negative has happened with the stock and yet it has been punished badly. So, I'm in the same boat with you.

My other holdings are MFN, MRB (merged with NGD), and AZK.

Dave

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